This year, nitrogen fertilizer has been outstanding in the market of various chemical fertilizers. The price of urea has frequently exceeded 3000 yuan / ton, and the price of ammonium chloride has not fallen. On the contrary, the mainstream ex factory quotation of dry ammonium has reached about 1450-1650 yuan / ton. Since late April, the price of urea has started to rise, whether it is for industry to take goods or hype export support. The quotation of some enterprises in multi landlord production areas such as North China and East China has increased by about 100-140 yuan / ton. The price rise of enterprises in the early stage of May Day is relatively positive. However, due to the certain impact of May Day holiday and the expectation of bid opening in India in the later stage, the price of urea should be high and strong in the near future, or the price is not cheap. Looking at the production enterprises of ammonium chloride, there are enough orders to be issued, and the price level has exceeded the expectation, but the enthusiasm of picking up the goods in the downstream market is still high, and there is no inventory in the upstream and downstream markets, so the supply in the spot market is inevitable to be tight. However, with the end of the spring market, especially the northeast region accounts for a large proportion in the whole market, once the demand is completely ended, the new orders of ammonium chloride will be significantly reduced and there will be a lack of centralized procurement, Ammonium chloride can only raise the tail slightly.

At present, the total daily output of urea enterprises is about 167000 tons. There is no maintenance enterprise in the near future. Instead, individual maintenance urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia and Anhui have resumed production or have plans for resumption of production; Moreover, urea enterprises are also responding to the supply guarantee policy and maintaining a high load production state; The poor delivery of liquid ammonia during the May Day holiday did not affect the high price of liquid ammonia. Although it is slightly inferior to urea in terms of price profit, transportation and storage, its high price supports urea to a certain extent. In the short term, individual enterprises may slightly tilt their production focus to urea, but after the holiday, when transportation and procurement are restored, the production focus of enterprises can return to liquid ammonia, and the output of urea may be reduced to a certain extent. The agricultural demand for urea is general. Although there is topdressing procurement in some parts, the overall demand has been reduced compared with the market in spring, and the procurement progress in industry is acceptable. In particular, some compound fertilizer enterprises have great difficulty in purchasing ammonium chloride, so they can only purchase urea for use; In addition, under the influence of urea port gathering, the price of urea began to rise. In addition, after India RCF company issued a new round of bidding for the import of urea with uncertain quantity, the price rise of China's domestic urea market is rising again, and the price is eager to try. In the short term, under the influence of the above factors, the price of urea will remain high, which will support ammonium chloride.

Ammonium chloride enterprises have sufficient orders to be issued, and enterprises generally need to control the receipt of orders. The procurement progress of downstream fertilizer enterprises is relatively good, and traders operate back-to-back with huge profits. In early May, the quotations of some factories were slightly increased, but mainly at low prices. At present, the mainstream factory quotation of wet ammonium in China is about 1350-1550 yuan / ton, and the arrival quotation of dry ammonium in Yunnan Guizhou region has slightly increased to about 1720-1750 yuan / ton. The price of wholesale sales is still rising, and the market atmosphere is not low. However, with the advance of the season, the demand for new orders of ammonium chloride has decreased, and the procurement volume in the Northeast market is small. The subsequent downstream operation needs to be cautious, and the price adjustment of factories, especially traders, needs to be rational.

From the perspective of supply, the start-up of Lianhe alkali enterprise is not low. According to the statistics of China chemical fertilizer network, the total daily output is about 79%, reaching 38200 tons. However, the inventory of manufacturers, downstream fertilizer enterprises and traders is low, while the price of urea is high, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase ammonium chloride continues to be high, which leads to the tension of ammonium chloride supply has not been alleviated; In May and June, a few large ammonium chloride plants in central and East China have plans for load reduction maintenance or annual maintenance, and the market supply will be narrowed at that time. In terms of demand, in terms of demand, the price of urea is high, some compound fertilizer enterprises have increased their procurement enthusiasm and quantity of ammonium chloride, and the procurement and production of low-content compound fertilizer are also carried out in an orderly manner. However, at the end of spring fertilizer demand, especially in Northeast China, there are few new orders. In summer, the fertilizer market is dominated by high nitrogen fertilizer, and the purchase of urea accounts for the majority. In addition, due to the tight supply of ammonium chloride, downstream traders have a smooth delivery of goods and high profits, Therefore, the reserve enthusiasm is high. At the same time, the market price is increasing. The production progress of extruded granular ammonium chloride enterprises is better. However, with the end of the spring market and the gap period of summer fertilizer, the demand for ammonium chloride will slow down in May, and the prices of traders in the market may loosen.

Finally, from a comprehensive point of view, the recent positive market of ammonium chloride is dominant, the supply is relatively tight, and the new orders lack centralized support for taking goods, but the role of waiting to be sent is still. Urea has sufficient support for ammonium chloride. It is expected that the price of ammonium chloride is still high and stable in the short term, with individual small movements, and enterprises actively deliver goods and return orders.