As of April 27, the ex factory quotation of urea manufacturers in Shandong rose to 2980-3000 yuan / ton, that of Hebei rose to 3020-3040 yuan / ton, and that of Jiangsu and Anhui also rose to more than 3000 yuan / ton. Recalling the ultra-high price of 3200 yuan / ton and above in October last year, people in the urea market can not help but wonder whether the historical price of more than 3000 will be repeated?
Looking back on April, the ex factory quotation of Shandong urea manufacturers mostly hovered at 2850-2900 yuan / ton in most of the time. The epidemic affected the relationship between transportation. At one time, the ex factory transaction was much lower than this, and most of the transaction prices were not different from the quotation.

On the one hand, this wave of price increase was vaguely initially announced by the Customs on April 18 that China exported 70000 tons of urea in March 2022 and 300000 tons from January to March, a decrease of 62.2% compared with 803000 tons in the same period in 2021. Although the export volume is still small, some people in the branch industry are ready to move. The legal inspection for more than 40 days seems not so difficult. More and more people intend to collect urea in Hong Kong (ranging from 1000-3000 tons per order). There are more and more rumors about opening up exports at the end of June. Soon, urea manufacturers took advantage of the trend to promote the rise of urea prices.

Soon, from the 22nd, the ex factory quotation of Shandong urea manufacturer increased by 10 yuan / ton per day, and from the 26th to 27th, the single day increase was 20-30 yuan / ton. Originally, this period should be the interval between spring and summer, that is, the small off-season for urea procurement. This daily rise has exacerbated the panic of dealers who have not taken goods for the summer market. In addition, the temperature in Northeast China this year is lower than that in the same period of previous years, the sales front of spring ploughing chemical fertilizer has been lengthened, especially the epidemic situation has not improved significantly, worried about the continued rise of freight and the prolonged transportation time, Some dealers had to take the goods in advance for the summer market, which prolonged the duration of urea price rise during the small off-season.

The epidemic is good for the local market (the supply of goods from other provinces cannot arrive in time) and bad for the local market (the centralized arrival of urea transported by fire from other provinces, etc.). Since the price has increased, the panic purchase caused by the epidemic is good and dilutes the bad.

On the other hand, in addition to the fair export volume, it should be emphasized that the domestic and international economic environment seems to have created conditions for the rise of urea prices. For example, the Russian Ukrainian war is still continuing, countries attach great importance to chemical fertilizer and grain, and large capital flows may continue to flow into China's urea futures spot market; For example, the RMB fell sharply, and the US dollar rose 3% against the RMB in half a month. Today, it is 6.56, which is conducive to exports and makes those urea people who want to export more confident; For example, the epidemic situation is repeated, occasionally some cities have static management, and the domestic economy is poor. Now the fertilizer industry that can create high profits (the daily output of urea is as high as 166000 tons) is a tangled industry. It not only hopes that the fertilizer industry can make more contributions to economic development, but also worries that the rise of farming costs will turn into a sharp rise in grain prices, which may bring great shocks.

Back to the beginning, although the temporary price has broken through 3000 yuan / ton, it is still not in the peak season of fertilizer use in summer and is approaching the May Day holiday. It is still very unlikely that the price will rise to 3100-3200 yuan / ton in a short time. It has broken through 3000 yuan / ton, so it's time for everyone to wait and see. Buyers who dare not take the goods have not taken them, and it's difficult for buyers who dare to take the goods to have too much inventory at such a high price. Zhongfei net car roughly looked at the price at the end of April / early May last year. At that time, the factory price of urea in Shandong was only 2100-2140 yuan / ton. History will not repeat itself and can only be used as a small reference.