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Urea fluctuates frequently. When can compound fertilizer stabilize?
Time:2022-05-19   Read:574second  

Since the beginning of the month, there has been a strong atmosphere of price rise in the chemical fertilizer market, and the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium and compound fertilizer are significantly higher than those in the same period last year. As the closing stage of summer demand, the recent market of high nitrogen corn fertilizer has attracted attention. After several rounds of rise, up to now, according to zhongfei.com, the factory quotation of 40% chlorine based (28-6-6 / 30-5-5) compound fertilizer nationwide is generally higher than 3200 yuan / ton, and some quotations are even higher. The overall market situation is slightly chaotic. However, most enterprises support the price, mainly due to the strong support of raw material cost.

Since the beginning of the spring market, the price of compound fertilizer has always been in an upward trend, and the increase has exceeded expectations. The acceptance of downstream is relatively limited, and the purchase and sales activities are tepid. The atmosphere of the domestic urea market is delicate. After the price continues to rise to a high level, the rise has slowed down recently. Although the factors such as printing standard and agricultural demand are still slightly favorable, the high price transaction situation in the market is not ideal, and the short-term market may fluctuate in a narrow range. The change of urea market is weakened, and the speculation mood of compound fertilizer enterprises may also be calmed. This week, in addition to the rise of low-end prices in the early stage, the main line market is stable and small.
First, the summer replenishment demand is about to be released. Generally speaking, the harvest of Winter Wheat in some areas will be carried out successively from June, and then the summer fertilizer market will enter the final stage. At present, the demand for replenishment of corn fertilizer is about to be released. Although the circulation price of compound fertilizer in the terminal market is always low, the recent local transactions are also rising. With the gradual digestion of early-stage inventory, the replenishment price of subsequent dealers will be higher than the early-stage level, Next, the circulation price of the grass-roots market will also return to relative rationality. In addition, the market progress in spring and summer this year lags slightly. After several rounds of price increases, compound fertilizer enterprises hope to stabilize the price and take orders in order to mobilize the enthusiasm of the market.

Secondly, the advance harvest of the market in autumn has started. Since the beginning of the month, while the summer replenishment market has been promoted, some autumn advance collection activities have also been carried out in advance. However, the overall quotation and policy of autumn fertilizer are not clear for the time being. Only a few enterprises have tentatively introduced policies, most of which are interest bearing, and there is little bottom guarantee. On the one hand, the reason is that the high price of compound fertilizer is rising in the second half of summer. If the market can be smoothly connected in autumn, it seems logical for enterprises to quote even if it is "high", not to mention that the cost of raw materials is indeed rising significantly; On the other hand, the market sentiment has changed, and there are more optimistic views on the autumn market, so we collect money in advance to seize the market opportunity.

Finally, the prices of phosphorus and potassium fertilizer remain high. As an important part of the raw material of compound fertilizer in autumn, the phosphate fertilizer market has attracted much attention. Compared with the urea market, the price of Monoammonium is mainly upward temporarily, especially monoammonium. The recent price rise momentum is extremely strong. A few factory quotations of 55% powdered monoammonium in Hubei have reached 4400-4500 yuan / ton, and some enterprises still do not quote temporarily, control or accept orders. The market of raw sulfur and phosphate rock is overweight, and the price of Monoammonium may be difficult to fall in the short term; Recently, the potash fertilizer market is slightly stable, the demand is in a relatively off-season, and the price changes little. However, the shortage of supply has not been greatly alleviated. In addition, the price of potash fertilizer may still rise due to concerns about the arrival quantity of subsequent imported potash fertilizer.

To sum up, there has been a certain increase in the price of compound fertilizer since May, but there is basically "price without market", and there are few transactions at high prices. It is expected that the short-term compound fertilizer enterprises will still support the price to achieve the purpose of promoting stability by rising.

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