Recently, the price of urea market is mainly fluctuating, and the downstream enterprises mostly take a cautious attitude to purchase a proper amount. Moreover, the urea manufacturers are also frequently adjusting their prices to cope with the market's caution due to the low start-up. As of this Friday, the mainstream factory price of urea in Shandong Province was 2260-2280 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region was 2300 yuan, The factory price of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2310-2320 yuan, that of mainstream urea in Henan is 2290-2370 yuan, that of mainstream urea in Shanxi is 2220-2240 yuan, and that of large particles is 2220-2240 yuan. At present, the daily physical output of urea in the whole country is maintained at about 140000 tons. However, according to the planned time of enterprises that stop production, the resumption time of large plants is between August 15 and August 25, Moreover, the urea enterprises that have been shut down for a long time in the early stage will enter the production resumption stage in the near future and next month. The urea output increment is imminent, and the urea price may continue to fluctuate and decrease, mainly in the following aspects:

First, the impact of fertilizer on the environment. Recently, except for the mainstream urea fertilizer, the prices of other mainstream fertilizers have shown a relatively weak trend. The bids in the compound fertilizer market are under great pressure, and the progress of raw material procurement is kept in a certain wait-and-see mood. At present, the price of urea is in a volatile market, and one of the main factors supporting the price of urea is that the overall operating rate is currently in a low operating state, but according to the current trend of operating upward, The price of urea also has a downward trend, and the market is not very clear. Some downstream markets say that because the demand start-up time is still early, they will wait for the supply increase of urea enterprises before making plans.

Secondly, the actual supply in the later stage of the market is slightly higher than the demand. In the near future, the fertilizer market is dominated by the demand for high phosphate fertilizer. Although there is a demand for urea, the quantity is relatively low. Although the Northeast market has a large demand for orders, it is dominated by orders, and the actual market purchase volume is not large. According to the situation in previous years, the recent reports of the national fertilizer commercial off-season reserves are mostly thunder and rain, and the end of discount interest is also a relatively off-season, In the near future, the actual amount of the market will also be small; However, the recent demand performance of the agricultural market is sluggish. Some regions are affected by high temperature and enter a drought state. The fertilizer consumption is affected to a certain extent, and even the extension of the autumn market will be reduced.

Finally, policy constraints. According to the market situation in the past two years, the trend of urea can be summarized into one sentence: the small rise and fall depends on the supply and demand, and the large rise and fall depends on the policy. At present, the export is greatly restricted. Although some urea export orders are being executed, most of them are loose orders. It is rumored that the legal inspection time will be extended to the end of this year, and the export will be restricted from January to April next year. According to the customs data, the export volume from January to July this year will be reduced by about 60% compared with the same period last year. It is still unrealistic for the market to relieve the domestic supply pressure through export; The coal price has risen again recently, which has played a certain role in supporting the cost of urea. However, the price limit in October last year has not been too long, and the price increase is within a reasonable range. It is expected that the increase of coal in the later period will also be regulated by the government.

To sum up, it is expected that the price of urea will continue to fluctuate in the near future, but due to the influence of factors such as increased supply and poor demand performance, the price of urea may show some signs of decline.