In a twinkling of an eye, the time came to the middle of August. Different from previous years, the recent Autumn compound fertilizer market is still at a stalemate stage. Although the downstream order inquiry phenomenon has increased with the approaching of the demand season, the actual transaction situation is not ideal. Most compound fertilizer enterprises are still implementing the orders received in advance. In addition to the general demand, the price of compound fertilizer has also dropped. Up to now, the mainstream factory price of 45% chlorine based high nitrogen fertilizer (such as 25-14-6) for autumn Wheat Fertilizer nationwide is 3500-3600 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price has dropped below 3500 yuan / ton without preferential treatment.

The market of compound fertilizer is weak, dealers lack confidence in stock, and the price of raw materials is falling precipitously. This autumn, the fertilizer market faces one after another difficulties. After the slight rise of raw material urea price at the end of last week, the market has become slightly stable in recent days. The overall daily output has decreased due to local power restriction, which has more or less supported the market. However, the demand performance is still poor, and the price fluctuation in the future market is relatively reluctant. It is expected that there is a greater possibility of narrow range fluctuation in the future. The fluctuation range of urea market has narrowed, and the mainstream enterprises of compound fertilizer also intend to stabilize the price in a timely manner. Then, can the next price really be stable?

First of all, the market trend of raw materials is downward. Although the market of urea has stabilized, the market of Monoammonium and potassium chloride is still under pressure. The market price of Monoammonium has also dropped significantly. The rebound of raw material sulfur price has not boosted the market of Monoammonium. The quotations of most enterprises are not clear, and the sales price of traders is at a low level. Due to the scarcity of new orders, the inventory pressure of factories is increased, and the price may fall further; The market of potassium chloride is relatively poor, and the low-end transaction price of the market is increasing. The market of potassium sulfate is also not improving for the time being, and the price is mainly downward. Therefore, it is difficult for the short-term raw material market to stabilize and recover, and the cost of compound fertilizer is also difficult to rise.

Second, downstream demand is cautious. Buy up rather than buy down. The downstream market sentiment has always been shrouded in the shadow of price reduction. The progress of the fertilizer market this autumn has also been correspondingly delayed compared with the usual. Recently, the purchasing and selling atmosphere in some markets has slightly warmed up, but it has not reached the state expected in the peak season. First, the seasonal demand is close, and winter wheat is the main crop planted in autumn in many places, which is usually suitable for sowing in October. Now, there is not much time left for the fertilizer season at the grass-roots level, In addition, with the support of the policy of picking up goods and guaranteeing the minimum price, some dealers intend to pick up goods in an appropriate amount to prepare for unexpected needs; The second reason is that the market of raw materials is not stable. Even if the minimum price is guaranteed, if the price continues to be adjusted substantially in the future, it is better to wait and see for the market to be clear.

Finally, look at the supply situation objectively. In order to find favorable support, rumors about autumn fertilizer supply or shortage have gradually increased in recent days. In combination with the overall operating rate of compound fertilizer plants, it is indeed lower than that of the same period of last year. However, whether the final supply can be very tight needs to be treated with caution. First, there are various alternative products, such as wheat mixed fertilizer, which also accounts for a large proportion in the autumn market and has a certain price advantage over compound fertilizer; The second reason is the release of the capacity of small and medium-sized real estate factories. Because the raw material prices were too high in the early stage, such factories did not have a large amount of reserves. Now they are "light loaded" and the production costs are generally lower than those of mainstream factories.

To sum up, the autumn fertilizer market is more and more clear, but the specific price trend needs to be seen in combination with the demand start-up around the end of the month and the raw material market.