At the beginning of the week, urea had been on a downward trajectory. But recently, due to the rising atmosphere of coal and other prices, urea has once again embarked on the road of price increase. Of course, some urea enterprises have expected to reduce their supply, which has led to a reduction in urea supply. Several favorable factors have been supportive, and urea enterprise prices have risen, especially in the main production areas of Lianghe and other places.
The rise and fall of urea are not very volatile, but they often fluctuate, which is also the driving force for the market to move. Recently, the market of monoammonium has also taken a turn for the better. Although there is no significant improvement, the market has changed from the past to light, and the downstream inquiries have increased. The monoammonium quotation has basically stabilized. At present, 55% of the mainstream ex factory quotation of powdered monoammonium in Hubei is 2800-2900 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the actual ex factory price is 2750-2800 yuan. This price has been stable for half a month or more. It is heard that some low-end ex factory has gradually disappeared in recent stages, For example, the rumored Hubei low-end 2700 yuan factory has not been heard recently. However, it is reported that Bayuquan Port monoammonium is "ready to move", and it is said that 55% of the buyout price of 2900 yuan of powdered ammonium is expected to increase by 50 yuan, but there is no clear deal for the time being, and most of the deals in the Northeast in the recent stage are guaranteed orders. So how about the monoammonium market? The analysis is as follows.
First of all, the demand starts slightly, but it is still early to officially start. Around the beginning of September, several compound fertilizer enterprises in the northeast region purchased 10000 tons of ammonium chloride. At Bayuquan Port, Yunnan and Hubei also received ammonium chloride successively. The port price ranged from 2900 yuan to 3050 yuan. At the low end, it was a buyout quotation, and the minimum price was 3000 yuan to 3050 yuan. Up to now, several compound fertilizer plants in the northeast region have appropriately purchased raw materials to build warehouses, but large-scale centralized procurement has not yet arrived, mainly because it is still early to the winter storage market, Even if this year's demand starts earlier than last year, it should wait until the middle of October. As far as the northeast is concerned, the delivery of monoammonium in Hubei, southwest and other places has improved, and the number of downstream inquiries has increased. It is reported that the low-end transactions of some enterprises have picked up slightly in the early stage. In general, the demand for monoammonium has indeed improved, but it has not yet achieved a very ideal effect. After all, the autumn fertilizer has ended, and the winter demand is still early. However, the current monoammonium market has a relatively optimistic trend, which is a good thing.
Secondly, the enterprise inventory has been consumed, but the pressure still exists. The supply pressure of enterprises has eased in the recent stage. Although the operating rate is still relatively low, the operating rate of some enterprises has rebounded. The main reason is that the inventory pressure of enterprises has gradually decreased. It is reported that the overstocked monoammonium inventory of enterprises in the early stage, the gradual consumption in the near future, and the long-term low operating rate, some monoammonium enterprises have less inventory, some small plants have no inventory, and the near future will be developed about 10000 tons, Although the transaction price may still be low, goods are the king's way. However, the pressure of enterprises should still exist, and demand has not been fully released for the time being. A small supply of enterprises will also lead to a situation of oversupply. The future needs to focus on the relationship between supply and demand.
Thirdly, the raw material cost is strongly supported, but it still depends on supply and demand. The price of raw materials is relatively good in the near future. The price of sulfur has experienced a brief correction and has risen again in the near future. At present, the price of granular sulfur in the Yangtze River Port has risen to 1250 yuan, while the price in Puguang Sulfur Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Plant is 1170 yuan and 1050 yuan respectively. Recently, the stock of sulfur in the port has gradually decreased, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has increased. The price of phosphate rock is firm, and the price of Hubei liquid ammonia is also going to 4000 yuan.
On the whole, the raw material cost has a strong supporting force, the supply pressure of enterprises has weakened, and although the demand has not improved significantly, it is also developing in a good direction. It is expected that the monoammonium quotation should be temporarily stable, and some low-end may rise slightly in the short term.