In November, the fertilizer market in autumn in many places was basically ended. Only some rice regions were relatively late in using fertilizer, and the remaining demand for replenishment was relatively limited. The purchasing and selling activities of compound fertilizer in this autumn were not strong, especially in the second half of this year. With the continuous downward trend of fertilizer prices, the market atmosphere became more and more sluggish. Both upstream factories and downstream dealers were cautious, and terminal demand did not show well. As a result, the market was quite cold at the closing stage, and to some extent, it affected the start of the winter storage market. It was difficult to determine the enterprise's winter storage quotation and advance collection policy.

Recently, the domestic urea market is still volatile. For a long time, the overall price adjustment has not been large, and the impact factors on raw material cost and supply and demand are not obvious. In view of the upcoming comprehensive launch of the winter storage market, the current volatility of the urea market and long-term uncertainty make winter storage activities "cautious". Most compound fertilizer enterprises said that they are not in a hurry to introduce the winter storage pre collection policy because of the unstable market, Especially in the urea market, if there is a "roller coaster" type change in the later stage, it will disturb the mentality of the terminal winter storage. It is better to choose to wait and see for a while.

First of all, in addition to urea, the market for other raw materials is also very general. In fact, it is "used to" that the urea market fluctuates frequently. Another major reason for the uncertainty of the winter storage market is that the phosphate fertilizer and potassium fertilizer markets are also difficult to support. The monoammonium market recovered steadily, even some prices rose slightly, and the factory still had some orders to execute. However, after the end of the autumn, the seasonal demand decreased significantly, and the procurement activities of the compound fertilizer factory were slow, so the subsequent market may be under pressure; Although the new price of domestic potassium chloride is stable, the international market continues to be weak, the domestic demand is not satisfactory, and the source of imported goods is slightly sufficient. Therefore, the price of potassium fertilizer may decline further.

Secondly, in addition to raw materials, terminal demand is also very important. The main reason why the price of wheat fertilizer fell more than expected in autumn was that the cost of raw materials fell too much. In addition, the terminal demand could not form a favorable support. The winter storage market also faced such a situation. Up to now, although some compound fertilizer enterprises have tentatively carried out winter storage and pre collection, even if a minimum guarantee policy is introduced, dealers are not very interested in it. Concerns about long-term market conditions have always existed, but it is worth mentioning that the Lunar New Year this year is earlier than previous years. In order to ensure the normal start of sales activities after the year, some dealers may reserve an appropriate amount before the year.
Finally, in addition to demand, factory supply is also critical. At the end of the autumn market, there is little demand in the winter season. In order to avoid price loosening in the later period, most compound fertilizer enterprises try their best to digest the existing inventory. Therefore, in the early stage of the winter storage market, compound fertilizer enterprises are more willing to "pack lightly". Up to now, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has been low. On the one hand, due to the low "interest" of winter storage, many enterprises choose to wait and see for the time being; On the other hand, due to the slow progress of raw material procurement, most enterprises dare not reserve too much. However, some factories said that they would resume production in November, after all, the season is not waiting.
To sum up, as expected, the winter storage of compound fertilizer is in a stalemate. In the short term, most enterprises will still focus on interest collection, and the specific price is still brewing.