Recently, urea prices in many places continued to decline slightly. As of this Friday, the factory price of mainstream urea in Shandong was 2400-2470 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receiving price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi was 2440 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2470-2510 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2390-2450 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi Province is 2390-2460 yuan, and that of large particles is 2410-2490 yuan. One of the main reasons for the decline of urea price is that the market demand has ended in the recent autumn, and the overall demand performance is not good. With the sharp decline of futures volume, the mentality has begun to change, and the price has fallen under pressure. However, the overall supply has remained at a relatively low level, and the supply pressure of the factory is not very high, approaching the end of the month, Enterprises that have stopped production for a long time all over the country have also started to resume production. It is learned from the market that some plants have ignited products at this stage. After November, there should be an obvious increase in the planned supply. However, the industry said that there should not be too much decline in the price in the later period. The main reasons are as follows:

First, raw material cost support. Although there are signs of narrow fluctuations in the recent price of coal, it still maintains a high shock. After the major conference, there is a basis for price increase. However, the supply of large granular urea in Jincheng is relatively low, and the cost support is sufficient. Based on the recent coal price, the full cost of the high-end fixed bed is still maintained at 2500-2600 yuan, while the gas head enterprise recently said that the current natural gas price should also exceed 3 yuan per square meter, Whether it is to ensure heating for people's livelihood or the recent energy crisis in the international market, the domestic energy price should not be strongly intervened by the policy without crazy soaring. In addition, once the cost of raw materials soars, the downstream urea price should be significantly increased. Therefore, some downstream markets believe that although the recent urea price has declined, its price should not decline significantly in the short term.

Secondly, the potential market demand is relatively considerable. Since October, the agricultural market demand for urea has been relatively weak, while the production demand for compound fertilizer has also been suspended with the end of autumn fertilizer. At this stage, the market is in the "green and yellow" period, and it is understandable that the price has dropped. However, since November, the national commercial reserve and winter reserve of fertilizer have been gradually started, especially in the Northeast market, Since the middle of July this year, some downstream markets have started to build warehouses and purchase in batches, but the overall purchase volume has been less than 30% of the annual plan. The market demand in the later period still exists. The downstream traders believe that there will not be too much decline in the price. After an appropriate amount of bargain hunting, the urea price may also rebound at the bottom.

To sum up, the demand of urea market is not good in the near future, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will continue to be dominated by weak operation. However, in the near future, the purchasing power has slowed down relatively, the social inventory is at a relatively low level, and the downstream mostly maintain the demand based procurement of urea. With the gradual release of reserve demand, once the urea shows signs of stabilization, the downstream will enter the market more, and then the price may rebound.