Since November, the urea market price has gradually changed from the previous decline to a tentative increase. This week, the increase of urea has increased. Compared with last weekend, the quotation in many places has increased by more than 100 yuan (ton price, the same below). Now the factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shandong is 2540-2580 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the delivery price of compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2600 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2590-2640 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Henan is 2500-2530 yuan; The factory quotation of mainstream urea in Shanxi Province is 2420-2470 yuan, and that of large particles is 2450-2470 yuan. The price in Northeast China has also been raised, including 2678 yuan in Liaoning Province and 2580 yuan in Heilongjiang Province. Although the price of some factories has temporarily entered the horizontal stage, most of the factories still have upward expectations. This urea price rise has swept away the previous state of repeated shocks, and the price continues to rise. The main reasons for this price rise are as follows:

First of all, the production reserve is expected to decrease. Although the daily physical output of urea has increased slightly in the near future, after November, most gas enterprises have expected to maintain maintenance. In some regions, the planned natural gas for this year has been used up, and the shutdown time may last about 2 months. In the southwest region, although there is no clear gas restriction notice, the maintenance time is relatively long. Unlike in previous years, Jincheng and other regions were forced to stop urea because of the high cost of raw materials, According to the current market environment, it is estimated that the possibility of production resumption in this month is low, and the arrival of large particles in some northeast regions may be lower than that in the same period of previous years; Even though the daily physical output of urea in the near future has remained above 150000 tons, higher than that in the same period of previous years, the supply has decreased, there are many market inquiries, and there is a certain sign of price rise.

Secondly, the demand of winter storage market is released. Although the northeast region has been purchasing since July, the overall purchase quantity is relatively small. Since November, in order to avoid the embarrassing situation that the finished products were expensive but less expensive, the grass-roots dealers have entered the office in advance to get the goods, thus driving the raw material purchase time of compound fertilizer enterprises to be slightly ahead of schedule, and some winter storage needs have been released in advance. On the other hand, the first inspection of national commercial short storage is about to start, Some reserve customers also entered the market to purchase, and the market supply was relatively tight in a short period of time, which pushed up the price.
Finally, the epidemic broke out in spots, and supply and demand in some regions were mismatched. The epidemic has lasted for a relatively long time. In some regions, it has lasted for more than three months. After the start of the above demand, the epidemic has affected the shipment, which has led to an increase in the number of inquiries. The supply of some factories is tight, and the price naturally rises. On the other hand, the factories affected by the epidemic have increased their own inventory pressure, but based on the shipping restrictions, the willingness to actively reduce the price is relatively low, and the price rises passively.

To sum up, under the influence of various factors, even though the daily physical output of urea in the near future is higher than the level of the same period in previous years, there is still some sign of price rise. With the gradual follow-up of procurement, the urea price may continue to rise. Recently, some gas enterprises have reduced production, the demand has slowed down slightly, and the price rise may be limited. In the later stage, the focus will be on the procurement dynamics of large traders and the recovery time of the overhaul urea enterprises in various regions.