Since last week, the urea price has rebounded significantly, and the rise is fast and not low. The urea price in the main production area has increased by about 200 yuan/ton. However, in the slack season of the domestic agricultural market, the urea price rise was somewhat unexpected, which happened to "collide" with the price rise of phosphate fertilizer, which is regarded as the improvement of the domestic raw material fertilizer market before the end of the year. The reason for the rise in urea price is nothing more than supply and demand. However, the supply and demand of the urea market are somewhat uneven, resulting in the urea production enterprises changing from initiative to passivity in the past two days, and local prices began to fall back, and the overall market fell into a situation of cautious promotion and local shocks.
Recently, the urea price in East China has been adjusted frequently. For example, the mainstream ex factory quotation of urea in Shandong Province is about 2580-2620 yuan/ton, while the receiving price of urea by Linyi compound fertilizer enterprises has dropped to 2560 yuan/ton, and the market sales price has also eased. For example, the sales price in some markets in Jiangsu has been firm and slightly dropped, maintaining around 2600-2640 yuan/ton. The factors and trend of urea price rise in the near future depend on supply, demand, industry mentality and some objective factors.

First of all, the daily output of urea is about 150000 tons, and there will be a change in the start of construction near the end of the month, which is reflected in the expectation that the gas head urea enterprises will stop production or limit production. Recently, according to the urea enterprises in the southwest region, they said that they will successively enter the production reduction and stop production period from the last ten days to the beginning of next month, as well as the gas head urea enterprises in other regions. At that time, the supply will be significantly reduced. However, some of the shutdown urea enterprises in Jincheng region are preparing to resume production in the near future, and the supply will increase at that time; However, when it comes to production, it is liquid ammonia. With the fall of coal price, the cost of the enterprise has decreased. However, due to the supply reduction or transportation problems under the epidemic situation, the price of liquid ammonia keeps rising. The mainstream ex factory quotation in North China, East China and Central China is still rising by 50-120 yuan/ton, which has risen to about 3750-4280 yuan/ton. The ex factory quotation of some parts such as Southwest Yunnan and Guizhou is even higher, which is about 4350-4600 yuan/ton, It is a good support for urea.

Secondly, the overall demand for urea has improved in the near future, and the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved. Both the promotion of light storage and the preparation of fertilizer from raw materials for compound fertilizer plants have increased, and the price of urea has risen along the trend. On the one hand, in the slack season of the agricultural market, the downstream market is not interested in urea, so it is mainly wait-and-see; On the other hand, the production progress of the industrial compound fertilizer plant has been promoted, the purchase volume of urea has increased, and the waiting orders of urea enterprises are sufficient, which is the key factor for the firm price so far; Moreover, the international urea price is high, which supports the domestic market. Manufacturers have high export enthusiasm and good export volume; Finally, the major traders recently made up the purchase order of light reserve fertilizer, and a few urea enterprises in Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places suspended export sales, giving priority to light reserve.

Moreover, the price of urea in the near future is also restricted by some objective factors, such as the epidemic situation in many places, the limited transportation, the blocked delivery of urea, especially the blocked delivery of urea in Xinjiang, which makes the supply of urea in local markets insufficient and the downstream markets low in inventory; In addition, from the perspective of the cost of urea enterprises, the recent coal price has fallen back, and the enterprise cost has fallen, so the urea enterprises have lost their relative initiative and become passive; In addition, the fear of heights in the downstream market has resisted the high price of urea, and the wait-and-see atmosphere has increased.

On the whole, the urea market has shown negative prospects. The shipment of high-end quotations has been blocked, the transaction has weakened, and the price has appropriately declined. The upstream manufacturers are also cautious. Supported by low inventory and demand expectations, they also have the intention to maintain a strong urea market. It is expected that there will be some deadlock in the urea market in the near future, the price will be adjusted rationally, and the market will move forward calmly.