During the Spring Festival, the purchase and sale of fertilizer market slowed down significantly. In addition to the delayed release of downstream demand, automobile transportation was blocked in many places, and factory shipments were nearly stagnant. The arrival of the Lunar New Year means that the winter storage market of fertilizer has temporarily come to an end. Although the fertilizer market has been generally stable recently, since the start of the winter storage market, the fertilizer market has been ups and downs. With the frequent ups and downs of the raw material market, the winter storage price of compound fertilizer is constantly changing, compared with the same period last year, the mainstream price of compound fertilizer is on the high level today.

According to the network of fertilizer, as of the festival, 45% of the national mainstream sulfur base balance fertilizer factory quotation in 3250-3350 yuan/ton, however, the local terminal market wholesale price is only about 3400-3500 yuan/ton, that is to say, the recent local compound fertilizer to the station price basic and terminal selling price flat or higher, upside down phenomenon reappearance, I believe that this is also the main reason to inhibit dealers' replenishment demand, so why the formation of upside down, upside down situation when can end? After the festival compound fertilizer market how to develop?

First, how did the upside down come about? In recent years, the phenomenon of inverted prices of compound fertilizer seems to have been common, which has seriously affected the normal operation of the compound fertilizer market. Combined with the current situation of the market this winter, the price of compound fertilizer is under downward pressure due to the sharp decline of the raw material market in the second half of the autumn, so that the early winter storage enterprise advance price is generally low, but the price of raw materials in the process has stopped falling and rebounded, driving the cost of compound fertilizer to increase. Factories have to offer higher prices, and dealers are afraid of high prices, so they are forced to stock up in the early stage of sales and dare not to restock at high prices. Therefore, the terminal selling price is at a low level, even lower than the latest arrival price.

Second, when will the upside down end? In fact, before the holiday, the terminal market sales in some regions have been slightly started, and the wholesale and retail price levels of dealers are basically determined. Before the initial inventory is completely digested, the terminal market will not change very much. The surplus demand will be released in February and March. That is to say, if there is a change in the terminal market, it will be revealed after February, and the specific reference should be made to the raw material market and the real demand situation. Once the replenishment demand is not as expected, the raw material market is no longer strong. Then compound fertilizer replenishment price may not be too high.

Finally, how will the market develop after the holiday? After the Spring Festival, the spring fertilizer market will start one after another. Due to the early Lunar New Year this year, the operation time after the festival will be longer than in previous years. However, most dealers may not have much reserve before the festival, so the spring replenishment demand market is still worthy of expectation. Factory price adjustment rhythm will not be very frequent, therefore, after the festival of compound fertilizer market bias to look stable, and even the possibility of temperature back, as for summer corn fertilizer stock market, should be cautious.

To sum up, the price of compound fertilizer is upside down. If the mainstream market remains high after the early inventory digestion of dealers, the downstream wholesale and retail prices will also rise appropriately.