Approaching the Spring Festival, the fertilizer market tends to be stable. Under the circumstances that the overall change of raw material cost is relatively limited, the mainstream price of compound fertilizer is basically stable, and most enterprises continue to leave the factory quotation unchanged. However, the high-price orders are slightly light, and only the orders to be sent are maintaining the goods. Since the winter storage market started, the price of compound fertilizer "low open high", the raw material market is high, forced by the cost pressure, compound fertilizer enterprises have to increase the product price, but the downstream resistance to high price psychology is increasingly strong, today's compound fertilizer enterprises can be said to be "riding a tiger".

Compound fertilizer price is high, without raw material nitrogen, phosphorus, potash fertilizer "credit", although urea prices are changing every day, but always maintain at a high level. The recent domestic urea market is a high shock, during the Spring Festival downstream demand is not expected to be so good, but some factories can rely on orders to support factory quotations, short-term market or narrow adjustment, no signs of big ups and downs. Urea price is high, the price of compound fertilizer for a long time does not move, up the lack of power, the cost is too high and can not be lowered, so the market stalemate.

First, raw material prices are down but still high. Compared with the end of the year, since January raw material prices have declined to varying degrees, but the decline is acceptable. At present, the main ammonium market is temporarily stable, the possibility of factory quotation change is not big before the holiday, and some enterprises are in the state of suspension, because the operating rate of compound fertilizer plant has declined in recent weeks, the demand for ammonium has decreased, and it may pick up after the spring market starts; The domestic potash market is also generally stable, the new import contract has not been formally signed, there is no clear price direction, in short, the probability of raw material market after the holiday will not be immediately significantly adjusted.

Secondly, the downstream replenishment demand after the holiday needs to be released. In the second half of autumn, the fertilizer market was obviously weak, leading to the price of compound fertilizer in the early winter storage at a low level. Because of the pessimistic mood in the afternoon market, most dealers were less enthusiastic about payment than in previous years, but in order to guarantee the follow-up sales demand, the downstream more or less made appropriate reserves. With the gradual rise in the price of compound fertilizer, dealers are more afraid of high and lack of willingness to replenish at high prices. In addition, the terminal market has started one after another, and the wholesale and retail prices are inverted from the current factory level. Therefore, before the Spring Festival, only the existing inventory is mainly sold, and the release of residual demand after the festival may play a supporting role in the spring market of compound fertilizer.

Finally, the remaining releases and new singles will be concentrated. During the Spring Festival, some compound fertilizer factories reduce the load or stop for a few days, and the overall operating rate decreases. Some factories also run at full capacity and reserve finished products in advance to prevent supply shortage in the spring market. For a long time, most compound fertilizer factories only execute pre-orders. However, given that the spring demand season is far away and the price trend is not clear, most dealers are not in a hurry to pick up the goods, so the factory has a large backlog of orders or surplus. If the spring replenishment market rises together after the holiday, it will pose a great test to the upstream supply and transportation.

To sum up, during the Spring Festival, the market of compound fertilizer is stable but not dynamic. The rise and fall of the spring stage also needs to be judged according to the raw material market and replenishment demand.