This week, the urea price experienced a round of first decline and then rise, and the market was obviously bearish in the early stage. However, with the increase of the futures market price, the market transaction atmosphere improved, and the demand restrained by the market decline in the second half of the week was released. The factory immediately raised the price. As of this Friday, the mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong was 2670-2740 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the receipt price of urea for the compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi was 2720 yuan; The factory price of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2680 yuan; The factory price of mainstream urea in Henan is 2660-2700 yuan; The mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shanxi Province is 2610-2660 yuan, and the price of large particles is 2700-2710 yuan. During the weekend, the price of urea in some regions continued to rise, and the market demand in spring remained. However, the overall price of urea rose hard and bumpy. The main reasons are as follows:
On the one hand, although there is demand in the market, it is not released centrally. With the gradual start of spring production, the demand of industry and agriculture for urea market is gradually released. In addition to the production of high-nitrogen fertilizer after spring and the demand for agricultural topdressing in various regions, the demand for urea in the later stage is relatively large, but the demand is not concentrated. And on the premise of good expectation in the later stage, some downstream markets may enter the market in advance to maximize profits. However, from the perspective of cost, the price of urea is expected to decline, In order to avoid risks, some downstream markets only purchase on demand, and are not afraid to rush to take the goods. At this stage, the social inventory of urea is relatively large. Some traders said that they are not willing to rush to purchase a large amount of urea before digesting the inventory, and the market demand is relatively fragmented. This is also one of the reasons why a division factory said that the price of urea is difficult to continue to rise significantly in the near future.

On the other hand, the supply pressure is large, which has a certain inhibition on the price rise. In the near future, urea has been gradually released, and some gas-head enterprises are also planning to resume production in the near future. At present, domestic urea daily physical production remains at the level of 160000 tons, and there are plans to continue to increase the supply in the future. On the other hand, some coastal areas said that the port urea is returning in the near future. Although the number of ports in the country is not too large, the return of port urea at least means that the export market is sluggish, If the domestic price level is still high, it is difficult to obtain new orders for later export. Under this background, the purchasing enthusiasm of export traders will also decrease. At that time, the domestic urea supply pressure will continue to increase. So even if the urea price level rebounds in the short term, some traders still do not plan to enter the market for purchase at this stage, and wait and see is the main.

To sum up, the price of urea has rebounded slightly in the near future, and the demand of the agricultural market will gradually start. However, the domestic supply will also increase, and the release of national commercial dilute fertilizer will be superimposed. At that time, the price of urea will rebound, but the range should not be too large. It is expected that the price of urea will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the near future, but the cost of urea is relatively weak, just like the sword of Damocles hanging overhead, It is expected that some prudent traders will still take a certain wait-and-see attitude and dare not venture forward.