After a steady increase of 10-20 yuan/ton per day, the price of urea has risen to the high level before the Spring Festival holiday. Taking Shandong as an example, as of February 27, the ex-factory quotation of Shandong manufacturers reached 2700-2780 yuan/ton. Next, should we continue to rise? Or has it reached the top and will it go down? Will there be a big drop?

First of all, the only factor that can be expected from the export side is the number of winning bids of the latest printed bid. As of February 24, the international urea price was mostly 1-25 dollars/ton higher than the previous week, but it was still low. China's offshore guidance price was 385 dollars/ton, but the ex-factory export price of Shandong manufacturers was less than 2500 yuan/ton; On February 22, IPL Company of India issued a bid for the purchase of 1 million tons of urea. The bid was closed on March 3. The validity of the bid was as of March 13, and the latest shipping date was June 1. The lowest bid price was estimated to be 370 US dollars/ton CIF and below. The FOB price in China was less than 355 US dollars/ton, and the ex-factory export price of Heshan East may be less than 2300 yuan/ton, which is calculated based on the current exchange rate of 6.95; Another nearly three-month shipping schedule also makes us feel that it is a pity to discard the high number of bids that India may win this time.

Most of the situation in India before and after the bidding is announced is the price increase before the bidding, and the price increase is less after the bidding is announced. Once the bidding is closed on March 3, when the bidding situation is clear, it is likely to start the downward path of urea price.

Secondly, in the spring ploughing season, there is just need, but not much. The delivery of winter wheat topdressing was slightly delayed but also basically ended. In February this year, the temperature was low and the sales season was extended. The dealers have been short of urea since the New Year's Day, and the inventory in hand is not large. As time goes on, the dealers who have no goods in hand have to take some at the current price level. The effect of compound fertilizer enterprises in the early stage of price fixing is general. Recently, it has changed to price reduction and order absorption. As time goes on, the amount of signed orders has increased a little, and the amount of raw material urea has also increased.

Thirdly, the pace of urea supply recovery is slower than expected. At present, the daily output of urea is only 160000 tons, the temperature is low, and the relationship between civil use and civil use is maintained. The resumption of production of gas-head urea manufacturers in Qinghai and Gansu in Inner Mongolia is slightly delayed, and a few manufacturers in Sichuan are also under low load. The recovery of production is delayed, but it is estimated that it will rise to the level of 170000 tons in the first ten days of March. The only variable in the first ten days of March is whether the Shanxi urea manufacturers will reduce their load/stop production due to safety/environmental protection during the Beijing Conference. The temporary output, together with the small price difference of urea around the country, supported the high price of urea.

The coal price was originally reduced, but after the collapse of a coal mine in Inner Mongolia, the safety inspection was put on the agenda, and the coal price turned to rise. It seems that the cost can be used for speculation.

Last but not least, futures are disturbing. The original research on the price change of urea mainly focused on the demand, supply and policy. Each round of price increase was just earlier or later than expected. However, since the arrival of urea futures, there has been another variable. In the off-season, we should consider the changes of futures as appropriate. In the spring farming season, it is even more touching. After all, some large agricultural means companies not only operate the spot, but also operate the futures, or cut the leek, or the spot at the delivery point to balance the income.
With unstable mind, it is not easy to predict the rise and fall of urea.

In short, the probability of urea continuing to rise is smaller and smaller. It was not weak last winter, and it is more likely to be weak this spring. If it falls sharply, it will not be mentioned for the time being. We hope that you can pay attention to the changes in the domestic and international environment in a timely manner and put proper operation into practice.