The domestic urea price fluctuated in a narrow range this week: at the beginning of the week, the urea price in many places continued the previous downturn, and the price showed signs of slight decline. After Tuesday, some downstream markets purchased the right amount of urea, and the price of urea rose in response, and even the price of urea in some regions in the northwest rose by more than 100 yuan (ton price, the same below), but the price of urea in some regions in the northeast declined slightly, and the price of urea showed some differences. As of Friday, The mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shandong is 2700-2780 yuan, and the receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer enterprises in Linyi is 2770 yuan; The factory price of mainstream urea in Hebei is 2700-2710 yuan; The factory price of mainstream urea in Henan is 2700-2740 yuan; The mainstream ex-factory price of urea in Shanxi Province is 2660-2670 yuan, and the price of large particles is 2730 yuan. The overall price fluctuation frequency of urea is accelerated. The main reasons for the non-rising or falling of the market are the following conflicts:

First of all, the continuous increase of supply and demand. In the near future, the daily production of domestic urea has continued to increase. Although major conferences have been held, the time for the resumption of production of individual plants has been slightly delayed. However, according to the statistics of China Fertilizer Network, the overall production of domestic urea has remained at the level of more than 160000 tons, and there are still signs of growth in the later stage. According to the past practice, even in the period without export restrictions, the overall supply of urea has risen to 160000 tons, and its price rise will be suppressed to some extent; The market demand level is also gradually released. Recently, the agricultural market demand is gradually released from the south to the north. However, the early market is in a bearish state, which leads to insufficient supply of goods for some traders. Stimulated by the gradual launch of the grass-roots market, traders purchase in an appropriate amount, while the small number of repeated purchases by traders lead to an increase in the price of urea. The price of urea fluctuated in a narrow range under the situation that the supply ends were gradually increasing.
Secondly, the relatively low inventory. Since the Spring Festival, some industries have been bullish on the long-term trend of urea. However, the recent price of urea has been repeated, and the inventory of domestic urea plants and downstream communities is at a low level. This factor has played a certain role in supporting the price of urea. Even if the market is bullish, the inventory pressure of most plants is at a relatively low level, and there is no need to reduce the price. Even some plants are driven by inquiries and transactions, On the contrary, the price is appropriately raised.

Finally, the wait-and-see mood caused by the low cost. At the factory level, the price fluctuated temporarily due to the low inventory level, but the overall price of coal was relatively weak. The low end complete cost of urea in some mainstream regions had already fallen to less than 2000 yuan. Because of the history that the price of urea fell sharply by hundreds of yuan in just a few days in the past two years, the enthusiasm of some traders in purchasing and reserving significantly decreased in order to avoid risks, This has led to a relatively low level of social inventory on the one hand. Once the market demand is started, the demand for goods is short, and the price level rises. On the other hand, it has also affected the continuous release of demand. There are few long-term orders from factories, and it is difficult to form a long-term support for the price level.

To sum up, the price fluctuation of urea has intensified recently. Although the price level of some mainstream regions is still rising, the printing mark is also a bad sign, and the possibility of a large number of domestic bids is low. At the futures level, the market sentiment is amplified. It is expected that the price level will still be repeated in the short term.