The peak season of the spring market is not prosperous, and the compound fertilizer market is sluggish. In early April, the spring compound fertilizer market in some regions showed signs of closure. Not only did downstream replenishment demand delay in releasing, but upstream factories were also experiencing a situation of dumping goods, and prices began to loosen. Compared to the same period in previous years, the performance of the spring composite fertilizer market is very average, or even very poor. The overall price has decreased from high to low, and downstream stocking has become more cautious. The demand release time has been forced to be postponed. Although there is still a certain replenishment gap at the terminal, it may be "unable to recover".

The summer fertilizer market is also facing numerous difficulties. As of the end of this week, the mainstream factory price of 40% chlorine based high nitrogen fertilizer (28-6-6-30-5-5) nationwide was 2650-2820 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price at the low end was even lower. The difference between high and low prices has exceeded 200 yuan/ton. The summer corn fertilizer market is chaotic, and the market is stagnant. Even though some dealers have already paid, their willingness to pick up goods in the short term is not very strong. What is the problem with the spring and summer compound fertilizer market in trouble?

Firstly, during the peak season, prices have fallen, and the future market for raw materials is pessimistic. In spring, fertilizer prices fell instead of rising, with the decline in raw material fertilizers constantly expanding. Recently, even urea prices have started to decline, and the spring market is in a tailspin. Downstream demand is slow to follow up, and short-term urea prices may continue to be weak; The market for monoammonium is also poor, with weak demand in spring and summer, limited new orders from factories, and weak price trends; The price of potassium chloride has decreased significantly, with frequent supply of low-priced goods at ports. There is currently no definite news on major contracts. However, the new price of domestic potassium remains stable and rebates can be made based on the completion of tasks. Therefore, the sluggish raw material market has to some extent weakened the confidence in downstream compound fertilizer stocking.

Secondly, the demand has been delayed, and the purchasing and sales during the peak season are relatively light. This spring, the compound fertilizer market showed a slight calmness. In addition to the lower than expected demand for replenishment, the release time has also been correspondingly delayed. The digestion of winter storage sources in the terminal market is slow, and its wholesale and retail prices are also low. Therefore, the replenishment market has not yet started on a large scale; The policy of pre harvest of summer fertilizer is gradually becoming clearer. In order to boost confidence in downstream payment, mainstream composite fertilizer companies mostly implement a minimum guarantee policy, as of mid to late May. However, dealers' enthusiasm for stocking is weak, mainly due to concerns about a significant price decline in the later stage. Therefore, until the raw material market is fully clear, it may be difficult to quickly advance the summer fertilizer market.

Finally, high inventory leads to low factory operating rates. As of the end of this week, according to China Fertilizer Network, the overall operating rate of mainstream composite fertilizer factories nationwide is close to 37%, showing a downward trend for several consecutive weeks. The first reason is that the spring market is approaching its end, with many previous orders completed and the remaining quantity of new orders is limited. Some factories have reduced their load to digest inventory; The second reason is that the long-term market trend is generally bearish, and the corn fertilizer market is stagnant, with most dealers hesitant to pick up a large amount of goods. Therefore, some factories have increased inventory pressure and have been forced to reduce production in the near future. It is expected that the production situation of the Hefei factory will still be unsatisfactory in the short term.

In summary, in late spring and early summer, with seasonal transitions and uneven prices of composite fertilizers, the short-term market may continue to be weak, and the long-term trend needs to be judged based on the raw material market and supply and demand situation.