Recently, the price of urea in the nitrogen fertilizer market has rebounded and stabilized. Compared to the small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride, urea appears to be a bad brand but has played a good hand. The price has stabilized at a high level, while ammonium chloride is different, deeply trapped in the "quagmire" of price reduction, and some enterprises still have a bottom guarantee policy. However, the slight rebound in urea this time is not optimistic in the industry. The market is in a wait-and-see mood, and the upward trend has slowed down amidst doubts. Afterwards, there is a downward trend in prices, which has made the ammonium chloride market even worse. Although the current quotation for ammonium chloride is not entirely clear, the price difference is constantly increasing compared to the same period last year, with the mainstream price being around 600-700 yuan/ton lower than the same period last year.

From the perspective of the urea market, prices in Lianghe, Shandong and other places that have rebounded first have also stabilized. As of Friday, the mainstream factory price of urea in Henan region is around 2500 yuan/ton, while the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 2480-2560 yuan/ton; From the perspective of dealers, according to feedback from some dealers, the receiving sentiment in the grassroots market is not high. Procurement is carried out according to demand, and there has not been much rebound in prices. For example, the local platform or wholesale prices in Jiangsu and Anhui are around 2550 yuan/ton, and the situation and expectations of new orders are not ideal. The urea market is somewhat stable and stagnant.

Firstly, the supply pressure in the urea market has not decreased. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the daily total production of urea is over 160000 tons. The domestic liquid ammonia market has an oversupply, weak demand, and the impact of low-priced imported ammonia. The price of liquid ammonia is still declining, and under cost pressure, some enterprises may passively shift their production focus to urea; Secondly, the demand for urea is average. Firstly, due to the low price of ammonium sulfate, some composite fertilizer companies have purchased ammonium sulfate instead of some urea or ammonium chloride for use. Secondly, the grassroots market has a strong wait-and-see attitude towards urea, and purchases are made as needed. Thirdly, large and medium-sized traders have bearish expectations for urea, and reserves are carried out as needed. Fourthly, industrial composite fertilizer plants have less than 40% of their operations, and their enthusiasm for summer fertilizer production is not high, The procurement volume of raw material urea has not increased, and it is also purchased as needed. In summary, there is demand support in the urea market in the short term, but in the long run, the overall market is passive and shows a trend of weakening.

Since there is an expectation of a decrease in urea prices, the ammonium chloride market will add more bearish sentiment. However, excluding the impact of urea on ammonium chloride, the supply and demand contradiction of ammonium chloride itself is the key factor that affects the market. At present, the quotation in the domestic ammonium chloride market is still unclear. Although some enterprises have scattered quotations, their reference value is limited, and transaction orders, buy outs, and guaranteed prices have all decreased; Last year, the factory price of dry ammonium in the main production area was around 1450-1650 yuan/ton, with the highest factory price of around 1750 yuan/ton within the year. However, the current factory price of dry ammonium is only 900-1000 yuan/ton per unit. Of course, the market sales price can also be flexibly adjusted. The recent focus of the ammonium chloride market is on whether demand has increased and whether supply pressure has eased.

On the one hand, according to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the overall industry operating rate of Lian Alkali Enterprises is about 88%. Compared to ammonium chloride, the price of the main product, pure alkali, has decreased relatively little. Lian Alkali Enterprises' production enthusiasm is still good, and there are generally no maintenance plans this month. The traditional maintenance time is in the summer. In addition, there is a new production capacity of ammonium chloride waiting to be released in the second half of the year, so the supply pressure has not decreased; On the other hand, the demand for ammonium chloride is weak, and the operation of composite fertilizer plants and extruded particle ammonium chloride plants is low. In the summer fertilizer market, which is the main source of high nitrogen fertilizer, urea is the main raw material, and the overall demand for ammonium chloride is relatively limited. In addition to consuming the inventory of ammonium chloride enterprises, the low price of ammonium sulfate has replaced ammonium chloride.

Overall, the bearish sentiment in the nitrogen fertilizer market is heavy, with the urea market temporarily slowing down and prices showing another downward trend. Ammonium chloride is troubled by supply and demand contradictions, and the market is still weak. The transaction settlement price is single negotiated.