In the past three years, there has been a new trend in the urea market. Now that the epidemic has ended, what may be the price trend of urea in May 2023?
Preliminary speculation suggests that urea prices will mainly decline in May, with occasional increases occurring once or twice. It is estimated that each increase may last for only 7 days or so. I can't talk nonsense. First, let's take a look at the price trend of urea in May over the past few years, and then let's use history as a mirror to guess the urea market in May this year.

May 2022: Taking a large urea enterprise in Shandong as an example, prices have been slowly rising. The factory quotation has risen from 3020 yuan/ton in early May to 3200 yuan/ton on May 20th, followed by a slight drop of 30-50 yuan/ton. In early June, there was a slight rebound again, and this article will not list it for now.
In May 2021, it was also a large urea enterprise with a significant increase in prices. The factory quotation increased from 2100 yuan/ton in early May to 2360 yuan/ton, and suddenly rose to around 2740 yuan/ton by the end of June. This area will not be studied for now.

May 2020: In the first year of the epidemic, the large urea enterprise's factory quotation hovered between 1570-1650 yuan/ton, with intermittent small price fluctuations.
May 2019: Before the epidemic, the factory quotation of this large urea enterprise slowly decreased from 1990 yuan/ton to around 1900 yuan/ton, and then slightly increased.
Roughly speaking, except for the significant price increases in May 2022 and 2023, May in other years is still relatively average. My guess about the occasional rise in May 2023 may be somewhat accurate.
Looking further ahead, in 2008 and 2016, the trend continued to rise and then plummeted in mid June. In 2016, the trend continued to decline from the end of April until the end of August and early September.
After looking at the past and looking at the present and future, what may be the positive and negative factors for May 2023?

Good news: International urea may rise a bit more, while domestic urea may fall a bit more to keep up with international standards; Domestic compound fertilizer enterprises, power plants, plywood factories, and distributors are all bearish in the market, and these will have to take goods when the demand arrives in the future; Next, seven or eight urea companies have maintenance plans; After a significant decline in late April, urea companies and some large and medium-sized traders may hold up prices, especially after one or two rounds of speculation, under a certain level of waiting/spot availability.

Negative: If the urea inspection period is shortened to 7-10 days after May Day, China's urea export will be a major country, exacerbating the international decline and potentially causing domestic disasters. The marking will also be postponed until the end of May; The demand in summer is generally lower than in spring, and in a few areas, the moisture is average. The season is delayed, and domestic industrial and agricultural buyers always have a small demand for goods, so they will try their best to lower prices; During the maintenance of urea enterprises, it is difficult to significantly reduce the daily production from 165000 tons, especially under the low prices of coal and natural gas, and most urea enterprises currently have no cost pressure; Even if the manufacturers hype together, it may not last too long.

In summary, the probability of weak fluctuations in the urea market in May is higher. If a certain round of speculation is not successful and there is a continuous decline in both international and domestic markets, that is the last thing that everyone wants to see, after all, first-time customers still hope that prices do not fall too quickly.