Recently, the urea market has been dominated by strong and volatile movements, and the market atmosphere is relatively active. Compared with other fertilizer markets, urea belongs to Dulele. However, as July approaches, agricultural fertilizer use will end, and demand will gradually decrease. After entering the off-season, industrial pickup will continue to be carried out according to demand, so the long-term trend of urea will continue to be bearish. Ammonium chloride is considered a bystander. Since the stable price of ammonium chloride in February this year, the market has started to decline all the way. As of now, the price has dropped to the lowest point in nearly three years, which has supported the recent willingness of ammonium chloride enterprises to boost prices or individual upward momentum to promote stability. The overall market is cautiously improving.

Recently, urea prices have risen moderately. It is reported that the mainstream factory quotation for urea in Hebei region has increased to 2080-2120 yuan/ton, while the mainstream factory quotation for urea in Shandong region has increased to 2050-2210 yuan/ton. The receiving price for urea by composite fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region has increased to 2150 yuan/ton, and the mainstream factory quotation for urea in Liaoning region has increased to 2358 yuan/ton; There is a slight fluctuation in urea prices in the market sales process, such as the wholesale price of local urea in Guangdong being around 2300 yuan/ton, and the local platform price in Jiangsu and Anhui being around 2130 yuan/ton; The reference price for mainstream delivery of dry ammonium is around 600-650 yuan/ton. Some companies have plans to increase prices to promote stability, but it is still far lower than the price of urea. The low price advantage of ammonium chloride is obvious, and the future trend still needs to be seen from the perspective of supply and demand, cost, and industry mentality.

From the perspective of urea, there is a lack of market confidence and a contradiction between supply and demand. According to statistics from Zhongfeiwang, the total daily production of urea is about 162000 tons. In the future, as maintenance enterprises resume production, the supply will increase. In addition, the price of liquid ammonia has been operating at a low level recently, and some enterprises may have a slightly tilted production center to urea. In addition, in mid to early July, new urea production capacity in Shandong and Hubei will be ready to be released, and there will be a significant increase in market supply at that time; The demand for urea is showing a decreasing trend, and the agricultural market demand is gradually ending, with scattered supplementary purchases. However, the use of fertilizer in some regions has been delayed, and the recent demand has been relatively flat, supporting the current market. Large traders hold bearish expectations for urea, and procurement is carried out as needed, while grassroots markets purchase as needed. However, this also leads to low social inventory levels, supporting prices to remain high; In terms of industry, the overall load of composite fertilizer plants and plywood plants is relatively low, and the demand for urea is limited; Furthermore, urea lacks export advantages and has limited support for the domestic market.

From the perspective of previous ideas, the sustained high price of urea is a positive support for ammonium chloride, but from a performance perspective, it is not entirely the case. In the off-season, the low price advantage of ammonium chloride will also be covered up. At present, the ammonium chloride market is mainly stable, and enterprises have a willingness to raise prices, and prices are gradually stabilizing. Recently, some ammonium chloride enterprises have started annual maintenance, and a few will enter the maintenance period in July. The pressure on local supply sources will be alleviated. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the industry operating rate of ammonium chloride enterprises is about 84%, but the release of new production capacity in the second half of the year will be a "dangerous signal". In addition, a few enterprises still have a certain amount of inventory to be digested, and the supply is still in surplus; The demand for ammonium chloride is light, and downstream markets purchase according to demand. The production of autumn fertilizers has scattered reserves of ammonium chloride; Furthermore, the export performance of ammonium chloride is average, with good and bad support for the domestic market; However, in summary, the recent stable price of soda ash has seen a slight decline in some areas, supporting enterprises to increase prices. The price of ammonium chloride is also at a low level, and downstream acceptance has increased. The cost-effectiveness is obvious, and the joint alkali enterprises themselves can store ammonium chloride.

Overall, urea prices inevitably fluctuate frequently, and the pros and cons of ammonium chloride are also complex, presenting a stalemate situation. However, its price is already low, and manufacturers have a willingness to hold up prices. It is expected that the ammonium chloride market will be stable in the near future, with some short-term increases, but the extent is limited. This will stimulate the progress of downstream early order pickup, and the overall trend is cautious and positive.