Recently, there have been some signs of weakness in urea prices in multiple regions, but some regions have shown some signs of rebound in urea prices this week. As of this Friday, mainstream urea factory prices in Shandong region are 2150-2290 yuan (ton price, the same below), composite fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region are receiving urea prices of 2210 yuan, mainstream urea factory prices in Hebei region are 2180-2190 yuan, and mainstream urea factory prices in Henan region are 2190-2220 yuan, The mainstream factory price of urea in Shanxi region is 2160 yuan, and the large particle price is 2090 yuan. However, after two days of fermentation on Saturday and Sunday, the low-end price of urea in Shandong and other places has slightly rebounded, and the delivery price in Linyi has also increased by 40 yuan to 2250 yuan. Under the bearish market, the urea price has once again rebounded. Recently, the price of urea has fluctuated, mainly due to the following reasons:

Firstly, the caution caused by low cost support. Since the beginning of this year, the overall price of coal has been relatively low. Although there have been occasional price increases recently, based on the calculation of urea prices and costs, most urea factories still have certain profits. If the market continues to improve, traders can continue to follow up. However, once the demand for urea in the market weakens, market panic will increase. However, there is no sign of a significant increase in coal prices in the near future. Downstream, in order to avoid risks, only moderate purchases will be made, At this stage, we will only maintain a wait-and-see state while taking the opportunity to enter the venue

Secondly, there is a conflict between demand follow-up and downstream bearish sentiment. Recently, there has been a shortage of agricultural fertilizers, and the procurement of raw materials for high nitrogen fertilizers in the industrial market has also passed its peak. The foundation of the downstream market is relatively slow, and urea prices in various regions have shown some weakness. However, market demand is relatively scattered, and most factories are still waiting to be shipped. Recently, some traders have started to purchase goods in moderation and fulfill July contracts. In this situation, the overall price of urea has slightly declined in the market, Rebound upwards again.

Finally, there is a mutual game of declining supply and demand. In terms of supply, due to the fact that most factories' production has not touched the cost line of urea enterprises, the overall operating rate of urea factories remains relatively high. Some factories' annual maintenance plans have been pushed back and forth. However, since July, with high levels in various regions and equipment running for a long time, many factories and devices have entered a maintenance state. According to statistics, the daily physical production of urea in China has decreased to below 160000 tons, Moreover, there are still maintenance plans for the urea plant in the near future, and the overall supply is still showing signs of decreasing in the near future; Although the demand side has remained cautious recently, due to the continued bearish outlook in the downstream market, the social inventory this year is relatively low, which has led to a windward increase in urea prices once market demand starts. Coupled with the recent reduction in urea supply, the overall frequency of urea price adjustment is still relatively fast during the already low sales season.

In summary, the supply and demand in the urea market have recently decreased, and the demand for hard agriculture has decreased. However, there is still sporadic demand in some regions' urea market. However, due to the recent supply reduction, the factory area is still waiting to be developed, and the sales pressure is relatively small. There is a possibility of short-term fluctuations in the quotation.