From last weekend to the beginning of this week, there was a slight decline in urea factory prices, especially with a general decrease in urea prices at the beginning of the week. Following the rebound in urea prices, there have been many positive factors for this price increase. Although domestic industrial and agricultural demand is relatively low, especially in the low season of agricultural demand, the international urea price has risen, coupled with the impact of natural gas price increases and related issues such as the Black Sea grain transportation agreement, domestic urea has resolutely continued to rise, In the short term, the rise in urea prices will not stop for the time being. According to the conventional mentality of "buying up instead of buying down", the rise in urea prices is also a good guide for the entire fertilizer market.

Part of it is affected by the improvement of the atmosphere in the fertilizer market, and the market for monoammonium is relatively good. Since the rise, the overall quotation has increased by around 50-100 yuan (ton price, the same below). Currently, the mainstream factory quotation for 55% of powdered monoammonium in Hubei is around 2450-2500 yuan, while the actual factory price for large factories is around 2500 yuan. In the early stage, low-end factory prices have gradually disappeared. The actual factory price for 55% of powdered ammonium in Sichuan is between 2400-2450 yuan, and the factory quotation for 55% of powdered ammonium in Anhui has increased to 2550 yuan, It can be seen that the price of monoammonium has indeed increased, but the rate of price increase is not too fast. Recently, factories have been mainly executing early orders, limiting or suspending orders. It is expected to consider re accepting orders near the end of the month.

So why did the ammonium nitrate factory suspend orders? In fact, this is also a relatively wise choice. Through this wave of demand, the inventory of ammonium nitrate enterprises has been basically consumed, and they have also received some guaranteed orders in the early stage. Currently, there are still some orders waiting to be executed by the enterprise, and it is expected to be near the end of the month. The enterprise is well aware of the hard demand downstream, and it is not appropriate to continue to receive orders recently. Batch orders for ammonium nitrate are the foundation for the market to slowly rise. Moreover, some companies' operating rates are still relatively low recently, which may be affected by raw material supply issues. Some companies still have to shut down production for about a month due to device issues, indicating that the overall operating rate of ammonium nitrate will still be low in the short term.

In terms of demand for monoammonium, it is acceptable, but there should still be some demand in the later stage. However, in the recent stage, downstream acceptance of higher prices is not high. Some industries are well aware that large compound fertilizer factories or traders in the early stage purchased cheaper monoammonium, so they also want to purchase cheaper monoammonium. However, they do not purchase as much as large factories, and the current price of monoammonium will not be so favorable. In the absence of urgent production, The wait-and-see atmosphere for small and medium-sized compound fertilizer enterprises is still strong, and their acceptance of higher priced monoammonium is not high. However, after all, autumn is the peak season for monoammonium, and there is still hard demand in the later stage.

The support for raw material costs is acceptable. The price of sulfur fluctuated slightly, with the price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River Port ranging from 880 to 900 yuan. This week, the prices of Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Plant of Puguang Sulfur increased to 900 yuan and 820 yuan respectively. The price of phosphate ore is mainly stable, with a price of around 800 yuan for 28% grade phosphate ore in Hubei and around 920 yuan for 30% grade phosphate ore. The recent increase in liquid ammonia prices has provided some support for the cost of monoammonium.

In summary, a slow increase in monoammonium is a wise choice. Enterprises are currently waiting for orders to be issued, suspending orders until new ones are received in the later stages. However, there is still hard demand in the later stage, and the support for raw material costs is still acceptable. In the short term, the trend of stable, moderate, and slow increase in monoammonium may continue for a period of time.