Since last Sunday, there has been a significant increase in domestic urea prices. As of this Friday, urea prices in multiple regions have increased by over 100 yuan (ton price, the same below): mainstream urea factory prices in Shandong region are 2320-2430 yuan, composite fertilizer enterprises in Linyi region receive 2400 yuan for urea, mainstream urea factory prices in Hebei region are 2340-2370 yuan, mainstream urea factory prices in Henan region are 2350 yuan, and mainstream urea factory prices in Shanxi region are 2270-2280 yuan, The large particle price is 2240 yuan. Although some urea factories have seen a slight decline in their quotations towards Friday, the overall price level is still at a relatively high level. Currently, the domestic market demand is relatively average, and the demand for urea topdressing in multiple regions has entered the final stage. Even with the arrival of the rainy season in some regions and the increase in demand, the duration is relatively short, which is not enough to support the increase in urea this week. According to the market, The main factor contributing to the increase in urea prices this time is the rise in international energy prices, which has led to a further increase in international urea prices. Coupled with the impact of the current exchange rate, the domestic urea export market is positive and supports domestic urea prices. However, the recent rise in urea prices in China has slowed down slightly, mainly due to the following factors:

Firstly, the domestic urea quotation has reached a milestone. The domestic agricultural top dressing market has entered a phase of elimination, and top dressing in Northeast China and other regions will gradually be eliminated after mid July. Although there is a demand for compound fertilizer production in China in the future, as a high phosphorus fertilizer autumn market, the demand for nitrogen fertilizer is not very urgent, and the demand for fertilizer in the southern market is also relatively average. In this context, downstream acceptance of urea prices is limited, After a sharp increase of over 100 yuan in urea this week, downstream operations have been cautious, and there have even been sales that are slightly inverted from the current factory price of urea, further suppressing the upward trend in urea prices.

Secondly, the positive news for exports needs to be redeemed in moderation. Recently, some urea companies have expressed that they have received orders for port consolidation. According to market feedback, some of the port consolidation orders have already been exported, but there are still a certain number of orders that traders have significantly increased in the international market in the later stage of betting. The bidding for Indian urea has been circulating again and again. If Indian urea is tendered as scheduled in the later stage, there is a possibility of further exploration of domestic prices. However, if the Indian urea bid is not fulfilled for a long time, So there is also a situation of port cargo price reduction and backflow. The positive news of international urea rising in the early stage has already been realized in the domestic urea market. Downstream, to avoid risks, they are still waiting for further realization of the positive news. However, the possibility of domestic urea prices continuing to rise before the news is realized is not too high.
Finally, the domestic supply and demand have decreased, and the trading atmosphere is light. Recently, with the reduction of demand and the prolonged operation of some factories and devices, the domestic urea market has experienced a lack of supply and demand, with only moderate procurement in the downstream market. Due to factors such as cost and domestic urea production capacity, the downstream has a pessimistic expectation of the long-term trend of urea, which is also confirmed by the low inventory levels in the downstream society.

In summary, the recent rise in urea prices has slowed down, and even some factories have seen a certain decline in their quotations. In addition, there is also a phenomenon of downstream market inversion of factory factory factory prices. It is expected that there is a possibility of weakening urea prices before the good export news is realized.