Recently, urea prices have been continuously decreasing, but there has been no momentum or pace of adjustment when prices rise. Recently, after some manufacturers have proposed to maintain supply and stabilize prices and tighten exports, their prices have declined. Even with the release of the logo on September 4th, there has been no turmoil. Under the influence of various factors, the tone of the weak urea market in the later stage has been set, but the path to price reduction is long. The reason for the small decrease at present should be due to the low start of the enterprise, The inventory of the upstream and downstream is temporarily low, and there is a gaming sentiment between the buyer and seller. This has added to the already bearish expectation of ammonium chloride pessimism, and in addition, the supply-demand contradiction of ammonium chloride has gradually become apparent. Although most companies' quotations are firm, some transaction prices have loosened or slightly decreased, and the nitrogen fertilizer market seems to have fallen into "dust" from the cloud.

The similarity between the two nitrogen fertilizers is that they both show a slow downward trend. From a price perspective, urea operates at a high level. Compared to ammonium chloride, although its low price advantage is obvious, it is not too low. According to Zhongfei.com, the mainstream factory quotation for urea in Shandong Province is 2500-2640 yuan/ton, with high-end options available. As of Friday, Linyi Compound Fertilizer Plant's delivery price for urea is 2620 yuan/ton, with industrial procurement on demand and less pickup in the agricultural market, resulting in a slowdown in overall sales progress. The quotation of ammonium chloride has remained stable and slightly decreased, with some regions also showing signs of steady decline. The mainstream factory quotation of dry ammonium is around 650-780 yuan/ton, and the number of pending orders for enterprises is decreasing. At the same time, the trading volume of new orders is also relatively light, making demand even worse. The future trend is bearish and the expectation is heavier.

Firstly, the supply-demand contradiction of urea has gradually become apparent in the later stage. Recently, some urea companies are still undergoing maintenance, and some companies have delayed their resumption of production, with a total daily output of about 156000 tons. In addition, the consistently high level of operation has led to downstream markets purchasing according to demand, while reserves remain low; The price of liquid ammonia has risen and fallen, with significant increases in North China, East China, and Northeast China. The production focus of sporadic enterprises has shifted to liquid ammonia, and the prices in the declining areas are also operating at high levels. From a production perspective, there is still support for urea; However, some major traders have recently stated that their urea inventory will be put on the market, and there may be a risk of urea backflow in some ports after exports are tightened. However, the agricultural demand for urea is weak, and the reserves of major traders have become cautious and operate back-to-back. The current demand can only rely on industrial pickup, and the production of composite fertilizer enterprises has increased. There is a need to purchase urea, and the demand for exports is blocked, which will reduce the demand for urea at the port. From this perspective, the supply pressure of urea is not significant in the short term, and companies have a high price mentality supported by low opening and low inventory. However, due to poor demand and policy orientation, it is expected that prices will continue to slowly decline.

Secondly, the impact of urea on ammonium chloride can be seen as adding insult to injury. Currently, the ammonium chloride market is strong and weak, with scattered and small fluctuations in local quotations. The rise in soda ash and the loosening of ammonium chloride are also reasonable, with high starting points. However, the trading volume of new orders has decreased, and based solely on their own supply and demand performance, the trend in the later stage is more bearish.

Firstly, the continuous decline in urea prices will to some extent weaken the low price advantage of ammonium chloride; Secondly, there has been no significant improvement in the degree of tight supply and price increase of soda ash, and prices are generally above 3000 yuan/ton. Enterprises are maintaining high load operations. In addition, some new production capacity will be ready for production at the end of the month, and the supply of ammonium chloride will significantly increase, and there is also a risk of increasing local inventory; Thirdly, the demand for ammonium chloride has shown a lackluster performance. Compound fertilizer plants have sufficient reserves, new orders are replenished as needed, and new production capacity is ready to be released later. Therefore, manufacturers are cautious or bearish about ammonium chloride, and export performance has limited support for the domestic market. Overall, although there is still a certain amount of pending order support for ammonium chloride enterprises in the short term, which has made them willing to increase prices, the supply-demand contradiction is gradually becoming apparent, and urea is adding to the negative situation. Local quotations may have room for relaxation.