In late September, urea prices in many parts of China have experienced a significant decline. This is partly because factories have become more proactive in accepting orders due to the decrease in pending orders and the addition of pre-sale orders during the National Day holiday. As a result, prices have also experienced a certain degree of decline, but there is not much demand for hard downstream products. In addition, rapid price reductions have led to increased panic in downstream markets, making urea purchases relatively cautious, This leads to a further accelerated decline in the price of urea; On the other hand, with the completion of device maintenance in most urea factories, the daily physical production of urea in China has gradually increased recently. As of the eve of National Day, the daily production of urea has returned to the level of 170000 tons, and the overall supply pressure has gradually increased, which is also one of the reasons for the decline in urea prices. On the eve of the National Day holiday, the overall quotation of urea was relatively weak. Even though some factories' quotations remained stable, and some even slightly increased, downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. However, there was more potential demand in the later stage, and the industry's attention to urea was gradually increasing. So, what should we look at the market fluctuations after the holiday?

Firstly, the procurement time of Da Mao. Although some major traders stated in early September that they would delay the start of urea light storage procurement, the overall volatility of the urea market this year is too high. Due to the long-term low inventory situation in the downstream urea market this year, its price level is in a bearish but not bearish state for a long time. Currently, inventory in the Northeast region is relatively low, and some traders have started to "sharpen their knives". Once there is a slight market disturbance, Even though the current urea production is relatively high, there is still a possibility of follow-up, and urea may face another wave of upward trend at that time.

Secondly, the increase or decrease in supply. Around the end of September, news of urea production restrictions in the Jincheng region of Shanxi was released. According to the released documents, the time for production suspension and production restrictions this year has been slightly extended compared to last year. After summary statistics, from October 1 to the end of March next year, the urea production in the Jincheng region has decreased by more than 900000 tons, higher than last year (more than 500000 tons) and at the same level as previous years (around 1 million tons); However, according to past practice, there is a slight difference between the actual production limit and the expression in Jincheng, and according to the current market situation, the factory's enthusiasm for production is relatively high. Without major accidents, it is expected that the actual production limit of urea in the local area will not be too large; On the other hand, there is a situation of natural gas production stoppage and restriction. Based on last year's performance, gas companies may have reduced their production, but it is estimated that the overall reduction rate will be lower than last year. Based on the above situation, the overall supply of urea will remain at over 160000 tons after the National Day holiday, and supply pressure still exists.

he export sector has temporarily halted, and it is expected that the adjustment of international urea in the later stage will have an impact on the domestic market, but the degree should not be too large. Based on the above reasons, the urea quotation still has bearish factors due to factors such as high production and low hard demand in the near future. There may be a possibility of a downward trend in the price after the holiday, but after all, there is a large demand for light storage, and attention should still be paid to the procurement situation of Da Mao.