Recently, urea prices have risen first and then fallen, and the overall trend is relatively weak. Although companies have pre received orders to support them, the follow-up of new orders is not good. Companies have lowered prices to attract orders, but the current price of urea is still high, especially in the Northeast region where the urea market seems to be in the "paradise" of the fertilizer market. The mainstream factory quotation is 2550-2570 yuan/ton, and the arrival price of goods from outside the province is also around 2700 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles is much higher, For example, a factory in Liaoning quoted a factory price of 2880 yuan/ton for large particle urea.

However, although the price of ammonium chloride in Northeast China has also increased, it is vastly different from urea. Currently, the reference price for dry ammonium at Bayuquan Port is only around 820-830 yuan/ton, while the reference price for delivery to the terminal market in Liaoning is higher at 900 yuan/ton. The delivery price in Heilongjiang and Jilin is relatively higher, but it is still less than 1000 yuan/ton. The enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream has cooled down and purchases are made on demand, and there has not been a high heat and price in the same period in previous years, The reason for this should be the release of new ammonium chloride production capacity this year, with sufficient supply of goods, which has to some extent changed the procurement methods and mentality of downstream markets.
In addition to the different performances in the Northeast region, from the overall market perspective, the trend of the two nitrogen fertilizers also depends on changes in supply and demand as well as policy aspects. Compared to the price difference of two nitrogen fertilizers, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Jiangsu is 2560 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price of dry ammonium is 680-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan is about 2470-2490 yuan/ton, and the reference price for dry ammonium delivery is only about 750-780 yuan/ton. From the perspective of shipment, urea is mostly priced but not in the market, while ammonium chloride is steadily advancing.

Firstly, let's take a look at the performance of the urea market. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the total daily production of urea is about 175000 tons. Some urea companies in the Jincheng area are still limiting production, and the price of liquid ammonia is rising at a high level. A few companies may shift their production focus to liquid ammonia. In addition, there is an expectation of a decrease in the production of gas urea companies in the southwest region in the future, so the supply of urea should not increase significantly; Secondly, the new orders for urea are relatively weak, with scattered orders in the agricultural market. Industrial compound fertilizer factories have a strong demand for procurement, but the progress of finished compound fertilizer shipments is poor, resulting in a low overall operating rate and a need to reserve urea according to demand; The international urea market is once again weak, with a lack of export advantages. In addition, in order to ensure the supply of the domestic market, the urea export inspection has been tightened. Recently, various measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices in the domestic market have been released, and urea enterprises have appropriately lowered prices. Overall, the urea market is supported by pending orders in the short term, but bearish factors are gradually emerging. In the near future, companies should maintain a low profile, and there may be some room for price reductions.
Although the urea market is volatile and prices have also decreased, the impact on the ammonium chloride market is not significant, as the supply and demand of ammonium chloride are the key factors and urea prices are still at a high level. Some ammonium chloride enterprises in Henan and East China have insufficient production or short-term shutdowns. According to statistics from Zhongfeiwang, the overall production of ammonium chloride enterprises is still over 80%. Since the release of new production capacity, the supply of goods in the market has been sufficient, which has to some extent changed the purchasing mentality of downstream markets and there has been no panic like procurement.

From a demand perspective, the overall performance of ammonium chloride is relatively good, especially with the steady progress of procurement in the Northeast region. Firstly, compared with urea, ammonium chloride has a clear advantage in low prices. Some downstream compound fertilizer plants purchase ammonium chloride to replace some urea for use. Secondly, the promotion of the winter storage fertilizer market; In addition, traders hold cautious reserves of ammonium chloride, but demand is also following suit. Overall, ammonium chloride enterprises have relatively sufficient orders to be issued, and new orders have also been followed up, indicating a positive overall trend.