Recently, the urea market has shown a volatile and weak trend, with some positive and negative factors related to urea being pulled. For example, urea companies in Jincheng, Shanxi have limited production, and urea companies in Southwest China will enter a concentrated parking period due to gas restrictions. Domestic policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices are concentrated, and if the progress of light storage slows down, exports are tightening. Recent news shows that urea exports will be suspended in December, And there are market rumors that exports will be restricted until the first quarter of next year, with various signs indicating that the export path of urea is "blocked", making it difficult for domestic urea prices to significantly increase, but the decline is also limited, and the two sides are playing a game.

Throughout the domestic urea prices, there has been a slight consolidation, but the follow-up of new orders has been average, with some ports experiencing urea backflow and some enterprises experiencing certain inventory pressure. The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hebei region is 2420-2440 yuan/ton, while the mainstream ex factory price in Shanxi region is 2330 yuan/ton. The urea prices in Northeast and Sichuan Chongqing regions are still in the high range, with the former being 2450-2520 yuan/ton and the latter being 2460-2550 yuan/ton. The prices in the market sales process have loosened, and the receiving price of urea by compound fertilizer plants in Linyi, Shandong has decreased to 2420 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been frequent regulatory measures and rumors about the urea market. However, in addition to policies, the future trend also depends on the situation of domestic supply and demand as well as exports.

Under the dual impact of production and gas restrictions, the supply of urea will decrease in December. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the total daily production of urea is about 173400 tons. Starting from mid month, gas urea enterprises in the southwest region will enter a centralized maintenance period, with parking lasting for about a month; Urea companies in the Jincheng area are still limiting production, but the equipment is undergoing rotating maintenance, resulting in fluctuations in recent production. The impact is relatively limited. In summary, the supply of urea has indeed decreased before the Spring Festival, but it is not in a state of shortage. The daily supply may fluctuate around 160000 tons; However, in recent times, the price of liquid ammonia has significantly decreased, exports lack advantages, domestic supply and demand imbalance, and there is still room for price reduction in some areas. In the future, some enterprises may slightly shift their production focus to urea; In addition, coal prices have fallen, urea companies are hovering at low costs, and production enthusiasm from various factories is high.

From a demand perspective, the overall performance of urea is average. The agricultural sector is currently in the off-season, and the grassroots market is also in a low inventory state. Large traders are taking advantage of low prices to make appropriate reserves. However, in the later period, there is only a partial demand for wax fertilizer in Jiangsu and Anhui near December, but procurement is generally on demand; This year, urea prices have remained at a high level, which has increased the reserve risk in the downstream market, and the downstream market has basically maintained back-to-back operations; The demand in the industrial sector is relatively better than that in agriculture. Firstly, the production of compound fertilizer plants has increased, and there is still a demand gap for urea, which needs to be reserved in an orderly manner. However, according to feedback, the demand for urea in plywood plants is relatively average, not outstanding, and even partially affected by environmental inspections, the production may have decreased expectations; In addition, the price of ammonium chloride is operating at a low level, and manufacturers hold relatively bearish expectations for its long-term trend. The progress of finished fertilizer sales in downstream compound fertilizer plants is average, and cost pressure is high. There are cases of ammonium chloride replacing urea in the procurement of nitrogen fertilizer raw materials; Although the reserve of urea for light storage is also being promoted, there is a certain degree of relaxation in the time and quantity of reserves, so the supply of urea will not be too tight.

Finally, the domestic policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices is not relaxed, and urea exports have repeatedly tightened to ensure sufficient supply in the domestic market. In addition, there has been a recent backflow of urea in some ports, which has had a certain negative impact on the trading atmosphere in the domestic market.

Overall, although the supply of urea in the market is decreasing, demand is also limited, and the market is mainly based on on-demand procurement. According to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, the follow-up of new orders by urea companies is average, and the market's wait-and-see sentiment has increased. It is expected that prices will mainly fluctuate in the near future.