Recently, urea factories in Shandong, Lianghe, Shanxi and other regions have seen stable and low prices, with limited industrial supply and cautious customer purchases during the off-season. In the later period, most gas head enterprises in southwestern Inner Mongolia will enter the winter maintenance period, and the operating rate will significantly decrease. However, the time of concentrated impact may not be long, and relevant departments do not allow urea enterprises to increase prices. Therefore, the price of enterprises may remain stable and fluctuate narrowly, The possibility of significant fluctuations is currently not significant.

Recently, the price of ammonium has been declining. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei has dropped to 3400-3450 yuan (ton price, the same below), with a change of 50-100 yuan compared to the previous period. The ex factory price of 55% powdered ammonium for traders is between 3350-3400 yuan, with a decrease of 100 yuan or more compared to the previous period. The industry claims that the price reduction is temporarily within a controllable range. So what is the real situation? Do you still have a connecting flight?

In fact, this price reduction is not groundless. In previous years, the price of ammonium nitrate did increase before and after the phosphate compound fertilizer conference, but this year the price of ammonium nitrate seems to have increased much earlier. Winter storage procurement began in less than October. It is reported that at that time, ammonium nitrate enterprises in Hubei and other regions received tens of thousands of tons of orders in Northeast China, causing more orders to be placed, less sales pressure, and a faster upward trend in prices, Moreover, the factory price of 55% ammonium powder at 3500 yuan did indeed make a deal. Although the transaction volume was not high, the overall atmosphere of the fertilizer market was good. At that time, the phosphorus compound fertilizer conference was approaching, and the industry was also optimistic about the raw material market. However, the government's cooling of the market gradually weakened the atmosphere of the fertilizer market, and industry procurement became cautious. After the conference, the market became even more sluggish, with few new orders being sold. Therefore, traders lowered prices to attract orders, and factories subsequently lowered their prices, The ammonium market seems to be not ideal.

However, the author believes that there will not be a significant decline in monoammonium at this stage. There are still pending orders from ammonium nitrate enterprises, and some of them can be executed until January. The inventory of the enterprises is not high, and the sales pressure is not significant for the time being. Some enterprises have maintenance plans in the near future. Due to equipment problems, raw material problems, and sales issues, ammonium nitrate enterprises can stop production for maintenance or rotate equipment for maintenance. The overall operating rate is not likely to significantly recover, and it is still at a relatively low level. There is still a strong demand for ammonium monohydrate. Although new orders for ammonium monohydrate have not been successful in recent times, downstream procurement is cautious. This is mainly because downstream enterprises are not in a hurry to purchase ammonium monohydrate due to the long winter storage time. However, there is still demand in the future. In addition to Northeast China, enterprises in other regions also need to produce winter storage fertilizers.

Another advantage is that the cost support of ammonium raw materials is strong. Some companies claim that the profit of ammonium is divided by the increase in the price of raw material phosphate ore. The demand for phosphate ore in autumn and winter is high, and factors such as winter mining restrictions make the supply of ore slightly tight in the short term. Although phosphate ore may have the potential for speculation, the price increase can be considered solid. The price of sulfur has been fluctuating continuously in recent stages, with a relatively small range of changes. Currently, the price of granular sulfur at Yangtze River Port is around 905-925 yuan. This week, the prices of Puguang Sulfur at Wanzhou Port and Dazhou Plant have decreased by 20 yuan to 940 yuan and 900 yuan respectively. According to a rough calculation by Zhongfei.com, the high-end complete cost of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei is around 3100 yuan.

In summary, there has been a varying degree of decline in nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium in recent times, and the market is indeed relatively light. However, there are still positive factors supporting the overall decline of ammonium, and it is difficult to expect a significant decline.