After the Spring Festival holiday, the spring fertilizer market officially launched. Compared to the past, there are many uncertainties in the compound fertilizer market this spring, and the raw material market and supply and demand sides will greatly affect the price trend of compound fertilizers. After the holiday, there has been no significant fluctuation in the compound fertilizer market. Apart from some compound fertilizer companies maintaining stable factory quotations, some compound fertilizer factories have even loosened their prices. Some compound fertilizer companies are also considering new quotations or preferential policies, and the overall market is stable but weak. Whether the spring market can heat up as expected still needs to be further observed.

Although the positive factors are relatively limited, urea prices have rebounded strongly again recently, with local prices rising by over a hundred yuan. Buying up instead of falling, downstream agricultural demand has gradually started after the urea market improves. However, whether the urea market can continue to be strong still needs to be viewed with caution. Relying solely on the support of the urea market may not effectively boost confidence in the compound fertilizer market. In the short term, the compound fertilizer market may remain weak and stable, and the spring market may become even clearer after the introduction of new policies by various enterprises in the near future.

Firstly, what is the overall market situation for raw materials? After the holiday, only the urea market briefly improved, while the pressure on other raw material markets remained unchanged. The supply of ammonium chloride is relatively sufficient, and downstream demand has not been significantly released, so the price of ammonium chloride currently does not have a basis for a general increase; The quotation of ammonium nitrate factory has not changed much, and the operation of compound fertilizer factory is still recovering. The demand for ammonium nitrate in the market is lukewarm; The price of potassium chloride has not changed, and the market has not improved temporarily. The main reason is that there are many imported goods and a large number of port stocks. Therefore, it is difficult for the raw material market to have a strong positive performance to support the price of compound fertilizers to rise again.

Secondly, what is the downstream demand situation? After the holiday, some compound fertilizer factories in certain regions have indeed accelerated their delivery speed, and the overall operating rate has also rebounded to some extent. However, the current market circulation of goods is still based on early orders, and downstream new orders are still not ideal. The first reason is that the actual demand at the grassroots level is not strong, grain prices are low, planting returns are poor, farmers have poor enthusiasm for farming, and distributors have slow inventory digestion in the early stage; The second reason is that the long-term market is not optimistic, and there is even a possibility of further decline in high-end compound fertilizer prices. Before the fertilizer season, it is difficult for downstream demand to be fully released on a large scale. Therefore, the favorable support on the demand side is not sufficient.

Finally, how is the factory resuming work? The production of compound fertilizer plants generally decreased or stopped before the festival, and the overall operating rate once dropped below 30%. Recently, it is in a trend of gradual recovery. It is expected that the operating rate of plants will increase after the Yuanxiao (Filled round balls made of glutinous rice-flour for Lantern Festival). Due to poor willingness to pick up goods downstream before the holiday, there is generally a backlog of inventory in compound fertilizer factories. At present, compound fertilizer enterprises in various regions still focus on executing preliminary orders, and the minimum guarantee policy has not yet ended, resulting in slow downstream replenishment activities. After entering March, once downstream demand is released as expected, it will be a significant challenge for local transportation links, but it may be difficult to encounter shortages.

In summary, at present, various compound fertilizer enterprises are actively brewing new prices and policies for spring, and it is expected to be clear around the end of the month. The long-term market still needs to pay attention to raw materials and supply and demand.