Recently, urea prices have risen first and then fallen, and the overall market is lukewarm with fluctuating prices. Regarding the frequent news of urea "opening up exports" in the market in the past two days, the market has become anxious for a while. However, according to the news, relevant departments have refuted the rumors. Under the guidance of domestic supply and price stability policies, it is necessary to treat the market and policies rationally. The current downstream market has a low sentiment towards receiving urea, especially the lower prices of finished compound fertilizers, which has led to a slow recovery of enterprise production progress, resulting in a low enthusiasm for purchasing raw material fertilizers; Of course, the same applies to the procurement progress of ammonium chloride, which is one of the factors that contribute to the recovery of the ammonium chloride market and the relatively weak price increase. Another factor is the supply situation of ammonium chloride.

The high consolidation of urea prices is often influenced by speculative factors, and the price of ammonium chloride has risen, but confidence is not very strong. The mainstream ex factory price of urea in Northeast China is 2330 yuan/ton, while in Shanxi it is 2150-2210 yuan/ton. The market sales price can be adjusted flexibly. It is reported that the wholesale price of urea in Hubei is around 2350 yuan/ton. Yesterday, the receiving price of compound fertilizer plants in Linyi area dropped to 2230 yuan/ton. Looking at the slight increase in ammonium chloride prices, the mainstream ex factory prices for dry ammonium in North China are around 550 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex factory prices for dry ammonium in East China are around 550-580 yuan/ton. Of course, compared to urea, the low price advantage is obvious. The recent trend of two nitrogen fertilizers depends on changes in supply, demand, and policies.

The supply and demand performance of urea is still unbalanced. From the perspective of supply, according to statistics from Zhongfeiwang, the daily production of urea is about 178200 tons, with a high supply. With the resumption of production by some parking companies in the later stage, the supply of urea has slightly increased. However, the recent rebound in liquid ammonia prices has provided some support for urea; From the perspective of demand, the demand in the agricultural market is lukewarm and not very concentrated; Large and medium-sized traders often operate back-to-back on urea; However, there has been an increase in demand in the industrial sector. With the recovery of compound fertilizer and board factories, the new purchase volume of urea will increase. However, the market for compound fertilizer is not good, and production enthusiasm should not be too high. An appropriate amount of ammonium chloride should be purchased to replace some urea for use; In addition, there is currently no definite news indicating that urea exports will be relaxed in the near future. Therefore, the performance of the urea market will also be passive once the market's hype dissipates, returns to rationality, and the impact of the release of light storage fertilizers on the market in the later stage.

The ammonium chloride market is operating well, with prices tentatively rising. Although there is not enough optimism, pessimism is also limited. Even though the impact of urea prices on ammonium chloride is not significant, there can be some support in market sentiment. According to statistics from Zhongfeiwang, the overall operating rate of ammonium chloride is still slightly higher at 90%, indicating sufficient supply. However, some companies have short-term load reduction maintenance plans this month, coupled with the weak market of soda ash, prices have fallen significantly. From a cost perspective, it may slightly affect the operating situation of soda ash enterprises. Looking at the slow progress of demand for ammonium chloride, it is another factor that restricts the price increase of ammonium chloride. Firstly, the low operating levels of compound fertilizer plants and extruded particle ammonium chloride plants have led to slow recovery progress, and there are some reserves of ammonium chloride raw materials in the early stage. The follow-up of new orders is not ideal, but after all, the spring market demand is still waiting to be released, so there is real positive support; Secondly, traders purchase ammonium chloride on demand, and there is a lack of centralized procurement in the market. Overall, there is a combination of positive and negative factors in the ammonium chloride market. With the support of the demand to be released, there is a basis for price increases. However, the sufficient supply and slow progress of downstream demand also make the market recovery progress relatively weak or slow.