As the end of the month approaches, the spring compound fertilizer market is about to enter a sprint phase. This spring's compound fertilizer market did not give people too many surprises, but instead replayed the plot of the low peak season. As of now, not only has downstream demand been stagnant, but composite fertilizer prices have also shown signs of falling. Taking 45% sulfur based balanced fertilizer (such as 15-15-15) as an example, the mainstream ex factory quotation in the market is 2800-2950 yuan/ton. Recently, there have been rumors that the low-end price is even less than 2800 yuan/ton ex factory, and the high-end price level has also decreased compared to the end of February.

The compound fertilizer market is weak, but some compound fertilizer companies have not yet responded clearly. Prices and policies have not been adjusted in the early stage, so the transaction price may be negotiated or not quoted temporarily. Based on the current raw material market and supply-demand relationship, the price of composite fertilizers is indeed under downward pressure. However, upstream factories are relatively cautious in adjusting prices. In response to the recent significant decline in raw material prices such as urea and potassium chloride, some composite fertilizer companies only plan to introduce a new round of payment prices by the end of this month and early next month, and it is expected that the overall price will fall slightly at that time.

Firstly, there are still fluctuations in the raw material market. The prices of raw materials can be described as a collective decline, with the weakness of the urea market gradually deepening. The demand for winter wheat top dressing has gradually come to an end, and agricultural demand has decreased. In addition, the negative impact of the export market has forced urea prices to decline under pressure; The areas where the price of ammonium chloride has fallen have increased, and some factories have limited pending orders, with average performance for new orders; The price of potassium chloride has decreased significantly, and there is still a large amount of port inventory. There is also no obvious upward trend in international prices; The market for nitrogen and potassium fertilizers is both weak, resulting in a weaker phosphate fertilizer market compared to the previous period. Therefore, it is difficult to introduce new prices for compound fertilizers in the absence of stable raw material prices.

Secondly, the previous orders have not been fully executed yet. Although the spring market has progressed by more than half, there are still quite a few compound fertilizer factories whose preliminary orders have not been fully executed, and some of the minimum guarantee policies have not expired. The raw material market has changed but is not completely stable. If composite fertilizer companies easily adjust their factory quotations, it will affect the fulfillment of previous orders. In addition, while the minimum guarantee policy is still being implemented, companies need to make up for the price difference. As a result, composite fertilizer companies will be more passive; In addition, the wholesale and retail prices in the terminal market have been basically determined, and even if the factory prices in the upstream are adjusted, the downstream circulation prices may not easily change.

Finally, pessimism filled the entire spring. This spring, the market has been progressing slowly, with significant delays in progress in various regions, and the demand in the terminal market has not improved. Since the launch of the spring market, the prices of compound fertilizers have mainly shown a downward trend, and some formula prices have now dropped to the level of early winter storage. Buying up instead of buying down, the more the price declines, the more pessimistic the downstream sentiment becomes. They are unwilling to accumulate a large amount of reserves before the fertilizer season. Therefore, in order to stabilize the terminal market mentality and boost confidence in downstream replenishment demand, compound fertilizer enterprises are more willing to stabilize prices. However, with the recent combination of negative factors, compound fertilizer prices are likely to have to be adjusted.

In summary, the upcoming spring compound fertilizer market is not much of a mystery, and factories will focus on reducing inventory and promoting transactions. There is still some uncertainty about the summer fertilizer market.