The recent repeated market trends in urea have still attracted the attention of the market, with frequent information that seems to be true or false. After debunking the rumors, the rumors in the market have gradually stopped, and the atmosphere of speculation has gradually dissipated. Currently, the progress of new orders has slowed down, the urea market has weakened, prices have stabilized slightly, and the subsequent performance is relatively weak. In contrast, the performance of ammonium chloride is far inferior to urea. Although urea is bearish in the long run, it remains relatively high and fluctuates. Ammonium chloride is not only low, but also weak in performance after companies have raised their prices by 20-30 yuan/ton. sporadic companies have some room for negotiation on outsourcing or large order prices, and local traders have also loosened their prices in the sales process. The key to this trend is the imbalance between supply and demand.

It is not difficult to see the difference between urea and ammonium chloride in terms of price alone. Urea prices are consolidating at high levels, while ammonium chloride prices are rising again at low levels but with resistance. According to Zhongfei's understanding, the mainstream ex factory price for urea in Henan Province is around 2270-2280 yuan/ton, while the mainstream delivery price for dry ammonium is only around 600-620 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price for urea in Jiangsu Province is around 2360 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex factory price for dry ammonium is around 550-580 yuan/ton. Looking at the Linyi Composite Fertilizer Plant's delivery price for urea has dropped to 2260 yuan/ton, while the mainstream delivery price for dry ammonium is only 600 yuan/ton. It can be seen that ammonium chloride has a significant advantage in low prices, but the degree of mutual influence is limited.

The supply and demand relationship of urea is relatively balanced, but in the long run, the supply-demand contradiction is gradually becoming apparent, and it is inevitable that there will be a stage of fluctuation in the short term. Recently, urea production in Anhui has decreased, while urea production in Shandong has rebounded. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the daily total production of urea has slightly decreased to about 178700 tons; In recent times, the liquid ammonia market has been strong, supported by production restrictions by local coke companies, reduced production by liquid ammonia companies, and a rebound in downstream ammonia companies. The price has increased significantly, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate at high levels in the near future. Therefore, there is significant support for urea production. In addition, with the support of spring demand, the sales of urea are relatively considerable, but this is also a critical period for domestic supply and price stability. In addition, some of the locally stored fertilizers have been gradually released. From the perspective of the grassroots market, due to the impact of low grain prices, the enthusiasm for planting and fertilizer use has been somewhat hindered; The operation of industrial compound fertilizer plants and plate factories is not high, and the demand for urea is relatively limited; Finally, the export of urea continued to be restricted in March, which limited the boost to the domestic market. Overall, there are frequent changes in supply and demand in the urea market, and market sentiment tends to be cautious. It is expected that the market will inevitably fluctuate in the near future.

The high price of urea should be a support for ammonium chloride, but from the perspective of both prices, the impact of urea on ammonium chloride is weak, and the supply and demand of ammonium chloride itself is the key to affecting the later trend. From a supply perspective, according to statistics from Zhongfeiwang, the overall industry operating rate of Lianalkali enterprises is 90% higher, and in the long run, there are still new production capacity of ammonium chloride waiting to be released in some areas; However, the demand for ammonium chloride has shown a lukewarm and lukewarm performance. Firstly, there is a certain amount of reserves to be digested in the early stage, and secondly, the replenishment of new orders is relatively limited. In addition, the procurement pace downstream is cautiously advancing; In addition, the limited export of ammonium chloride has limited support for the domestic market.

However, it should be mentioned that the market for soda ash is sluggish, with prices significantly decreasing. Under cost pressure, attention should be paid to whether there will be any joint soda enterprises forced to voluntarily reduce their production in the future.

Overall, there are mixed positive and negative factors in the ammonium chloride market, and the recent supply-demand performance has been relatively imbalanced. Enterprises are relatively passive, but they are currently in the stage of using fertilizer in the spring market. It is expected that the overall trend will be stable, but accompanied by some weakness.