Just a week before the release of urea exports, the domestic urea market seized the life-saving straw of exports, and prices quickly rebounded. However, the performance was not rational, and only showed a "crazy weekend" market trend. The overall market weakened in the first working day. However, in the past two days, the spot market was again "turning the tide" under the influence of futures trading and various small essays. Overall, the urea market has strong supply and weak demand. It is reported that the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices may be put on the agenda again to curb the abnormal changes in the domestic urea market. In summary, the urea market has fluctuated, and there may be variables in the later stage under the influence of policy regulation.

At present, the domestic urea market as a whole is showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand. In a market that relies solely on exports but desperately raises prices without referring to international prices and demand, price increases may only be an interlude. According to Zhongfei.com, urea prices have been raised in various parts of China, but bearish sentiment still exists. Upstream companies are actively raising prices, while downstream companies are resisting and watching. The overall market is like a frightened bird, with prices rising rapidly in the grassroots market, but there is also an increase in prices without a market. As of yesterday, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong region was around 2160-2220 yuan/ton, while the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Northeast region was reduced to around 2170-2248 yuan/ton. The demand for urea was light, and there was inevitably resistance from downstream and grassroots levels. For example, the local platform price in Jiangsu and Anhui was around 2240 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction situation was average, with some areas having prices but no market. Next, the domestic urea market needs to recover rationally, and the key is to see the domestic supply and demand performance and policy changes.

Firstly, from the perspective of supply, some urea enterprises have temporary or planned maintenance expectations in April and May, and the supply will be tightened to a certain extent. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the daily total production of urea is about 170000 tons, which is slightly higher. However, some enterprises have started and stopped production, and the actual supply has not significantly decreased. The supply is still sufficient; In addition, the current liquid ammonia market is weak, with prices falling one after another, especially in the two lakes and southwestern regions where prices are lower than expected. There is still some downward space in the near future, and due to the dual impact of cost pressure and sales pressure, the production focus of a few enterprises may tilt towards urea.
Secondly, the domestic demand for urea has shown a lukewarm performance, with weak market demand and downstream demand maintaining on-demand procurement. The overall demand for agriculture is limited, and the resistance in the grassroots market has increased recently. Purchasing is based on demand, mainly supplementing orders. Large and medium-sized traders maintain back-to-back operations on urea in the short term, and purchase on dips; In terms of industrial production, board factories and compound fertilizer factories are generally operating, and the overall load is not high, especially in the case of imbalanced supply and demand in compound fertilizer factories. Recently, the supply of goods has been slow, and the increase in urea prices has not stimulated its sales progress. Some enterprises have not only loosened their quotations, but their transaction performance is still not ideal. The production enthusiasm of enterprises is not high, and the fertilizer progress in summer is slow. The procurement of raw material urea is maintained on demand; In addition, the price of ammonium chloride, a small nitrogen fertilizer, continues to decline, and is generally accompanied by guaranteed or temporary policies. Compared with urea, its low price advantage is no less obvious. Due to cost pressure, a few compound fertilizer plants will choose to purchase ammonium chloride instead of some urea for use.

Recently, the export of urea has just been opened up, but international prices are low. Currently, domestic urea prices are not in line with the international market, so manufacturers have little export advantage. However, urea prices have frequently risen, and there are variables in the domestic regulatory policies for urea exports. According to market rumors, relevant departments may introduce some policies to regulate the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and may stop the price increase of urea.

Overall, the urea market does indeed have a strong demand for goods to support it, but the recent positive and negative factors are both virtual and real. It is expected that the urea market may fluctuate in the short term, and it is expected that domestic policies will ultimately have an impact on the market in the near future.