In April, although prices were still subject to some fluctuations, some of which were not small, the overall fluctuations were limited. The spring and summer sales were good, and market confidence was restored. The fertilizer market gradually became more rational. The spring market is about to completely end in May, and the summer market continues to expand. How will urea, ammonium phosphate, potassium fertilizer, and compound fertilizer develop again?

urea
In April, urea showed a slightly unexpected firmness, with prices initially falling slightly but quickly turning into a tentative increase. Subsequently, for most of the time, it remained stagnant with a maximum increase of about 200 yuan (ton price, the same below); The operating rate also decreased first and then increased, with little overall change, and the daily output was higher than the same period last year. In terms of exports, there have been ups and downs, but it is not convenient to discuss them in detail. In short, this matter still needs to be focused on in the future.
As of the end of April, urea prices have remained strong, with some areas showing slight weakness. Futures have shifted from several strong fluctuations to a slightly weaker trend, with international fluctuations fluctuating and temporarily dominated by gains. The main tone of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices remains dominant. Due to the timely release of stored fertilizer in some regions and the occasional bullish sentiment in futures, the demand for industry and agriculture continues to release. Every round of price increases has buyers picking up goods, so the market gap may not be large by May June. However, there are slightly more manufacturers undergoing maintenance in May. Considering possible exports, some industry insiders are still slightly optimistic about the urea market in May. Overall, it is expected that urea prices in May may only experience slight fluctuations on the current basis.

Ammonium phosphate
In April, the market for ammonium continued to be weak. As of the end of the month, the mainstream ex factory quotation for 55% powdered ammonium in Hubei Province had dropped to 2850-2900 yuan, while the actual ex factory reference was 2750-2850 yuan, and the price decreased by about 200 yuan compared to the previous month. The market is generally not optimistic about ammonium phosphate, but in fact, with the overall improvement of the fertilizer market, downstream inquiries for ammonium phosphate have also increased. However, there is still some melancholy in actual procurement, mainly focusing on: on the one hand, the demand for summer fertilizer raw materials and export quotas in China; On the other hand, the market for raw materials such as phosphate ore has changed. It is also understood that as of the end of April, the operating rate of the ammonium industry was about 50%, which has decreased compared to the previous month; The international ammonium price is mainly stable, while the offshore guidance price in China has slightly declined. At present, the market believes that there is still some room for price reduction of ammonium mononitrate, with a range of around 50-100 yuan.

The price of diammonium has only decreased by about 50 yuan compared to the previous month. As of the end of the month, 64% of the mainstream factory quotes for diammonium in Hubei Province were 3750 yuan, with actual factory reference prices ranging from 3700 to 3750 yuan; However, there has been a significant increase in the industry's operating rate. It is said that the recent supply to the domestic market is mostly low content diammonium, with 64% of diammonium mainly supplied for export orders. In the future, there will be an increase in the market for 57% diammonium, and the price may decline. Moreover, it is worth noting that the international and domestic export prices of diammonium have significantly declined, which can be said to be a dilemma both domestically and internationally. Therefore, the pressure on the diammonium market in the future is more obvious.

potash fertilizer
In April, the potassium fertilizer market significantly improved, with prices rising by about 150-200 yuan month on month. Among them, 60% of the large particles in the Northeast market and 52% of the fully water-soluble powder in Shandong, Hebei and other places led the way, with an increase of about 300 yuan. The price increase is due to two reasons: firstly, the delayed demand has finally been released; secondly, there has been a slight oversold earlier, causing serious losses for the seller; thirdly, the rapid decline in port inventory has led to a recovery in demand, especially this spring when the demand for potassium sulfate has significantly increased due to the high tower water-soluble fertilizer. However, the sluggish international prices, as well as the still high quantity of Hong Kong stocks, and the relatively average market trend, have limited the rebound of potassium fertilizer prices. The most commendable achievement in April was the significant weakening of previous expectations for a possible sharp drop in prices. As of the end of April, many in the industry believed that although it was difficult for prices to rise significantly in the later period, it was also difficult for them to fall immediately.
The market is stable and the supply of goods is concentrated, with both positive and negative factors deadlocked. It is expected that the price of potassium chloride may fluctuate at the current high level. Taking 62% white potassium at the port as an example, the price will be adjusted within a small area around 2400 yuan/ton, around 50 yuan. Suggestions mainly focus on: 1. Changes in the quantity of port inventory; 2. The situation of major contracts in India. With cost support and a large number of pending orders, it is expected that unless there is a significant drop in potassium chloride, the good situation of potassium sulfate will be maintained, and it is prone to further increase with potassium chloride. Suggestions mainly focus on: 1. Export aspect; 2. The impact of potassium Luo maintenance.

Compound fertilizer
In April, the price of compound fertilizers decreased by about 50-100 yuan month on month, with a small magnitude, mainly due to high-end subsidies. However, as the volume of goods sold increased, the industry's operating rate continued to rise, and some low-end prices have rebounded. This spring, the compound fertilizer market is a bit lukewarm, with sales in some areas such as Northeast and Northwest China showing a significant decrease. The reason for this is not only the overall poor fertilizer market, but also the adjustment of planting structure. The market in the final stage of spring is slightly chaotic, but the fertilizer market in summer is becoming more rational and steadily advancing. Due to the concentrated release of downstream demand, the delivery speed of compound fertilizer factories is accelerating, and local supply is already tight. Based on the current raw material market and supply and demand situation, most composite fertilizer companies are temporarily focused on stabilizing prices for shipments. However, some manufacturers have indicated that if raw material prices remain stable or continue to rise, prices may slightly increase after May Day.