After a series of ups and downs, the urea market has come to a dismal end. Recently, due to the impact of supply and demand contradictions, urea companies are still under pressure to sell, and some companies and downstream markets have some inventory to be digested. The supply pressure has not eased yet, and urea prices are fluctuating at a low level. There is a trend of stabilizing gradually, but the progress of new order follow-up has not improved significantly, indicating that the industry is still mainly bearish on the market. With the opening of September, the ammonium chloride market has shown an expectation mentality. The overall market is currently running weakly, with limited orders from enterprises and weak follow-up of new orders. Therefore, there is still a certain contradiction between market supply and demand. However, with the passage of time, the ammonium chloride market may also usher in a golden September and silver October, or there may be a turning point?

At present, the performance of the two nitrogen fertilizer markets is similar, both running weakly. However, the slight difference is that the adjustment rhythm of urea prices is frequent, while the ammonium chloride market has been weak for most of the year. From a price perspective, urea prices are at a high level, and some companies often experience a certain rebound after receiving low-priced payments. In contrast, ammonium chloride has a significant advantage in low prices and remains at a low level for a longer period of time. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1930-1980 yuan (ton price, the same below), the receiving price of urea for compound fertilizer plants in Linyi region is 1980 yuan, the receiving price of dry ammonium is 540-550 yuan, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Hubei region is around 2030-2060 yuan, and the mainstream ex factory price of dry ammonium is around 490-500 yuan. The market trend of the next two nitrogen fertilizers should be viewed from the perspective of supply and demand performance and policies.

Firstly, there is a relative imbalance between the supply and demand of urea. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the daily production of urea is about 173700 tons, which has significantly increased compared to the previous period. Some urea companies that underwent maintenance in the first ten days will gradually resume production. Recently, the inventory pressure of urea companies has increased, and there is also a certain amount of unsold supply in some grassroots markets. The overall supply pressure of goods is obvious; But the demand performance is weak, the summer fertilizer market has ended, autumn fertilizer has not yet started, agriculture is in the off-season, dealers are mainly watching the market, and large and medium-sized traders maintain back-to-back operations of on-demand procurement of urea; In the industrial sector, the supply of finished fertilizers from compound fertilizer factories is not smooth, resulting in low operating rates. The production progress of autumn fertilizers is slow, and the procurement volume of various raw fertilizers is limited; In addition, the export of urea is still limited, and the overall export volume is relatively low. Compared to the domestic supply, the export quantity is insignificant. Overall, if the operation of compound fertilizer plants continues to be low, it will be difficult to promote the flow of urea, and under the premise of restricted exports, the domestic urea market may mainly experience weak fluctuations.

If the production of compound fertilizer plants does not increase, in addition to the poor demand for urea, the same is true for ammonium chloride. Therefore, it may be difficult to develop the golden nine of ammonium chloride. Under the influence of supply and demand contradictions, the market may not improve significantly, and the overall situation will be mainly flat. From a supply perspective, currently, except for a few ammonium chloride enterprises that stop for maintenance or reduce load, most enterprises have high operating rates. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the overall industry operating rate of existing alkali enterprises is about 81.3%, and recently some ammonium chloride enterprises or downstream markets have sufficient inventory, resulting in an overall surplus supply; However, the demand performance is difficult to match the supply, reflected in the low operating levels of compound fertilizer plants and the weak urea market. Downstream fertilizer companies have limited procurement of ammonium chloride and no willingness to buy at a low price; Traders have a weak willingness to purchase ammonium chloride and mainly engage in back-to-back operations; In addition, the export of ammonium chloride is also restricted, and its boosting effect on the domestic market is average.

However, there are also positive factors in the ammonium chloride market, as the prices of soda ash and ammonium chloride are both at a low level. The cost pressure on joint alkali enterprises is relatively high, and they have a basis to raise prices; In addition, the autumn fertilizer production of the compound fertilizer factory will be promoted in the later stage, and the procurement of ammonium chloride will also increase at that time; In addition, if some ammonium chloride enterprises introduce relevant policies, it will promote the progress of their shipment.
Overall, there are slightly more negative factors in the ammonium chloride market recently, but there are also mixed effects of positive factors. It is expected that the market will remain stable and weak in the near future, and the market situation in September can still be expected.