In general, the peak season characteristics of urea are obvious. Spring and autumn are the traditional peak seasons for concentrated urea fertilizer preparation, and the demand will increase significantly. Agricultural demand accounts for the main position, accounting for about 60% -70%. This year, Shandong, Hebei and other places have experienced slight drought, while Guangxi, Hunan and Anhui have been affected by floods and waterlogging. The autumn demand in some areas has not arrived as scheduled, and the sales of compound fertilizers are generally average compared to previous years. Compound fertilizer enterprises have postponed centralized procurement of urea, and downstream industrial customers such as plywood factories are also very cautious about urea procurement, resulting in a sluggish peak season for urea.

Urea is an indispensable and important nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture. Currently, it is in the regular peak season of urea in previous years, but the price continues to decline. This is mainly due to the overcapacity of urea, which to some extent limits the room for urea price increase. In recent years, the addition of new urea production capacity in Henan and other regions, coupled with the gradual resumption of production by urea enterprises undergoing maintenance in Inner Mongolia and other areas, has increased the pressure on urea supply. Even in the regular summer peak season, prices are difficult to rise significantly, and the situation is even worse in autumn. Although the demand for urea in industry and agriculture has shown an increasing trend in recent years, it is relatively slow compared to supply, and new orders from urea companies are relatively limited. Currently, market demand is difficult to keep up with supply, resulting in insufficient price action.

As of now, the ex factory price of urea is still continuously decreasing, with only a few temporarily stable or slightly rising. The ex factory price of urea enterprises in many places may soon fall below 1800 yuan/ton. The ex factory price of urea in western Mongolia has dropped to 1750 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price of small particle urea in Shandong is 1810-1870 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price of small particle urea in Shanxi is 1800-1830 yuan/ton, the mainstream ex factory price of large particle urea is 1840-1920 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of small particle urea in Hebei has also fallen to 1840-1850 yuan/ton. Since the beginning of the month, the cumulative decline of urea factories has reached about 100-120 yuan/ton. The effect of factory price reduction and order acquisition is not obvious, and the number of price increases is relatively small. Most of them are continuously lowering prices to promote transactions. Futures recently The performance was poor, with only yesterday afternoon and today's futures rising, indirectly boosting the spot market, The transaction price of a small number of urea manufacturers in the spot market has slightly increased by about 10 yuan/ton.

This year, in order to ensure the stable supply and price of the domestic urea market, policy efforts have been repeatedly strengthened. The policy continues to tighten the export of urea, and the impact of international market urea prices on China's urea has weakened. There are many urea enterprises in China, with relatively excess production capacity and fewer exports, which means that the urea that should have been used for export last year has remained in the country, resulting in an increase in domestic supply without a significant increase in domestic demand. This has driven the recent decline in urea prices, putting significant pressure on urea enterprises and average new orders. The downward pressure on prices in the domestic market will continue to exist.

Due to the current downward trend in urea prices, the downstream market has become increasingly cautious and cautious. Currently, most downstream agricultural customers believe that prices have not hit bottom and do not see the possibility of a significant increase in urea prices. They tend to choose to purchase urea on demand to avoid relative risks. They plan to start purchasing when the urea price reaches a certain low point or only make appropriate purchases in small quantities and multiple times. Downstream enthusiasm is low, and the sales pressure on urea companies has increased, exacerbating the price decline.

In fact, not only urea, but also the overall fertilizer market is currently running weakly. The market is still looking forward to the concentrated release of autumn demand, the start of light storage, and the slightly centralized procurement of raw materials such as urea by compound fertilizer enterprises. However, urea may not have a significant improvement in the short term, and weak operation is the main trend.