Since the autumn, the price of urea has repeatedly fallen below market expectations, and the price of small and medium-sized particles has dropped significantly compared to around September 24th last year. During the same period last year, a urea enterprise in Shandong Province quoted a small particle price of around 2560 yuan/ton, while a urea enterprise in Heilongjiang Province quoted a small particle price of around 2500 yuan/ton. Currently, the small particle price of a factory in Shandong Province is 1780 yuan/ton, and the small particle price of a factory in Heilongjiang Province is 1870 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 600-800 yuan/ton compared to the same period last year.

From a supply perspective, urea companies have maintained relatively high levels of production and daily output has increased compared to the same period last year. However, agricultural demand has been average during this autumn, with downstream wait-and-see sentiment being more pronounced and industrial demand slightly weak. The production and sales of compound fertilizer companies have significantly decreased compared to the same period last year, and compound fertilizer companies have reduced their purchases of urea at their discretion. The current market sentiment towards urea is pessimistic, and urea companies are facing inventory pressure and continuous price pressure. Traders and distributors are adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, with a focus on restocking for essential needs. It is expected that urea prices will not rebound significantly in the short term, and weak operations will be the main trend.

As the main product of nitrogen fertilizer, urea has a wide range of applications in agriculture and industrial production. The market demand for urea is relatively high. Although ammonium sulfate is also a nitrogen fertilizer, its market demand is not as high as urea. The two have different nitrogen contents, with urea having a nitrogen content of 46% and ammonium sulfate having a nitrogen content of 20.5%. When the price of ammonium sulfate is significantly lower than half of the price of urea, it will be chosen as a substitute for urea. When the price of ammonium sulfate is close to or higher than half of the price of urea, the opposite is true. Customers who have a demand for nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture and industry will switch to urea, which is more widely used and cost-effective.

The recent sharp decline in urea prices has not had a significant impact on the relatively high price of ammonium sulfate. On the one hand, some coke enterprises have restricted production, which has affected the production of their by-product ammonium sulfate to some extent. On the other hand, during this period, export demand has been relatively concentrated, and the international demand for ammonium sulfate has increased, with export quantities repeatedly breaking new highs, keeping the price of ammonium sulfate relatively high. The increase in the export quantity of ammonium sulfate is likely to be closely related to China's strict urea export regulations. As a nitrogen fertilizer, ammonium sulfate can replace it for export, filling some of the international demand for nitrogen fertilizer.

The current domestic fertilizer market is relatively quiet in terms of transactions, with only ammonium sulfate relying on exports to maintain a relatively high level. Other fertilizers have also experienced varying degrees of decline, and ammonium sulfate has been affected by pessimistic sentiment in the market. Recently, prices have started to weaken, with the mainstream ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in the country ranging from 840-900 yuan/ton. The high-end price has slightly fallen, while the low-end price remains stable. Multiple ammonium sulfate factories have reported a significant decrease in inquiries and bidders, and the current price is only stable, slightly falling, and not significantly declining. This is mainly due to the support of export demand. Once export orders are not so concentrated in the later stage, ammonium sulfate prices are likely to be difficult to maintain the current high price and will continue to decline slightly. Next, we need to closely monitor the international demand for ammonium sulfate and the domestic market for urea. Waiting for the price trend of fertilizers.