As the weekend approached, a short essay about urea exports once again swept the market, and every time after the essay, domestic urea prices would rise accordingly, and this time was no exception. At the same time, the futures market rose strongly, providing dual support for the spot market, and spot prices rose slightly one after another; From the perspective of domestic supply and demand performance, the upward trend may be difficult to sustain for too long, and the increase may also be limited, but in short, the urea market remains high and difficult to maintain. Since urea is like this, perhaps ammonium chloride, supported by it, can also get a share of the pie? At present, the upward trend of the ammonium chloride market is slowing down, and the progress of following up on new orders by enterprises has slightly cooled down. Except for local price increases, prices in many places are gradually stabilizing, and price increases are relatively weak. The impact of urea may provide "emotional value" for the price increase of ammonium chloride.

From the recent prices in the nitrogen fertilizer market, ammonium chloride still has a significant low price advantage. According to China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Henan Province is currently negotiable at 1830-1850 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of dry ammonium delivery is around 600 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price of urea in East China is negotiable at 1820-1890 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of dry ammonium is around 550-580 yuan/ton. The performance of the urea market is a bit of a "bluff", while ammonium chloride companies have sufficient pending orders, and the market is promising in the short term. In the later stage, the trend of the two nitrogen fertilizers should not only focus on the degree of mutual influence, but also on their respective supply and demand changes, especially export policies.

The price of urea has risen instead of falling due to speculation, but the actual domestic supply and demand have become slightly imbalanced. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the current daily production of urea is about 199000 tons, an increase from the previous days. However, this is also a normal supply in the urea market. In addition, there will be new urea production capacity ready to be put into operation near the end of the month or in the second half of the year; Light storage fertilizers are constantly being released, and there is sufficient supply of urea in the overall market. Some large and medium-sized traders have a certain amount of inventory for sale; However, after the recent surge in liquid ammonia prices, there has been a partial decline, which has weakened the support for urea in the later production focus.

However, the demand for urea is generally average, with a gradual decrease in agricultural demand and a small amount of replenishment in the grassroots market. The wait-and-see sentiment dominates; Although there has been no significant change in the operation of compound fertilizer and plate factories in the industrial sector, the procurement of urea is mainly based on essential needs. In addition, the low price advantage of ammonium chloride is obvious, which has a certain amount of substitution for the use of urea. And what is difficult to control is the futures market, which has risen strongly in the past two days with significant gains, supporting the sentiment and operations of the spot market; In the short term, urea exports will be restricted, and there is no definite news about the resumption of exports. Therefore, even if there is speculation about exports in the market, it is difficult to have long-term support. Overall, the urea market is operating relatively well in the short term, but prices may rise first and then fall.

Ammonium chloride can be somewhat protected by urea, supporting its market confidence, but it mainly depends on the supply and demand changes in the ammonium chloride market. Firstly, the supply of ammonium chloride in the market has increased recently, and the production of soda ash enterprises has generally rebounded to a high level. The market supply has increased, and the tight situation in the early stage has eased. In addition, the new production capacity of ammonium chloride in Jiangsu region is waiting to be released in the later stage; Secondly, the demand for ammonium chloride has weakened, and the procurement progress of raw fertilizers for compound fertilizer plants and extruded granular ammonium chloride plants has slowed down. In addition, traders have changed their operating mentality towards ammonium chloride, operating back-to-back as needed, and even showing slight signs of loosening in sales prices in some regions; The export of ammonium chloride is once again restricted, which lacks support for the domestic market.

Overall, in the short term, the nitrogen fertilizer market will be dominated by favorable conditions, with ammonium chloride prices gradually stabilizing as the main trend. There may be some room for some low-end prices to increase, but minor adjustments will be the main focus.