As of March 30th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong, Hebei and other places has risen to 1920-1950 yuan/ton. It is basically a consensus in the industry that urea will continue to rise, but whether it is to take a break and continue to rise, or to find opportunities to continue to rise, whether it is the Shandong and Hebei ex factory prices hovering above 1720-1750 yuan/ton from October to December last year, or the repeated rise after this year's Spring Festival, there is a shadow of speculation about exports. The current urea market may be artificially rising and scaring people into buying, and there are also hidden waves of speculation that some people will soon export or that they will not be able to export by 2025.

On the one hand, there is a clear mismatch between the expected and expected time of urea price increase: whether it is the increase in demand for urea by compound fertilizer enterprises and other companies compared to the same period last year, or a small number of urea traders hoarding urea for export or waiting to sell it to domestic customers at a slightly higher price once it can be exported appropriately, all of these are tentative or rigid price increases, scaring some customers who cannot sit on the bench and go to get urea. At best, the urea needed by grassroots units has already been obtained in advance. At worst, by the end of June/early July, when the peak season for industrial and agricultural demand in China ends, will some urea holders not have enough time to sell out? Could it be a visual experience from 2008

In early March, many industry insiders, including myself, believed that urea would experience a slightly longer period of tentative decline during the months of March and April, laying the groundwork for an upward trend in May and June or even in the second half of April at the earliest. This may be because big capital saw our subtle psychology and did not give us the opportunity to start with a slightly lower price, which was a nonsensical attempt to prop up the urea market at a slightly higher price. It may be because even a slightly higher price could not break the relationship between those who purchased goods at a price of 1800-1900 yuan/ton or above last year. Big capital then used speculation on exports and even unreasonably pulled up spot prices, forcing urea enthusiasts who originally did not want to buy urea in advance to force themselves. Entering with the scalp, after all, the first half of the year's essential needs appeared just by waiting. Whether it was an increase in essential needs or a trick, it just worked, The current price of liquid urea sources in the urea market is not low, as everyone has gradually sold a portion of the urea purchased at high prices before the Chinese New Year, and even the urea purchased at high prices last year.

In this way, can we still believe that urea will plummet in the short term? We dare not, although we believe that it has already risen to over 1900 yuan/ton, and it will be difficult to further charge 2000 yuan/ton, we have to compromise and take urea appropriately.

On the other hand, speculation about exports or speculation about the inability to export by 2025 may be due to the same group of market participants, who are simply misleading people. First, let's take a look at the current price difference between domestic and international markets. The mainstream offshore price for urea in the Middle East is about 350-360 US dollars per ton, while manufacturers such as Heshan East produce about 2350 yuan per ton. There may be some speculation before the deadline for bidding in India on April 8th. Anyway, the current price difference between domestic and international markets is still as high as 400-500 yuan per ton, and there is no chance for short-term exports. Observing the international level of decline after this printing, we can also make a judgment on the appropriate time for China to export more urea.

Of course, it is precisely because the price difference between domestic and international markets has narrowed from about 1000 yuan/ton to the current 400-500 yuan/ton that some insiders are truly confident that they can export urea at some point in the future, increasing their confidence in storing urea. What we are not sure about now is how much urea is potentially prepared for export in case it is not exported. Anyway, speculating on exports is effective, and it seems that the mainstream trend is to increase prices more or decrease prices less. It is not surprising that urea prices are still rising.

In short, the increase in domestic demand for urea should have slowed down compared to the previous two years, and exports are temporarily unable to be produced. There will still be speculation about exports. We hope that everyone will be cautious about the prices in April, not to operate too much, and of course, not to be blindly bearish. Urea is really helpless, sigh.