The recent major event in the nitrogen fertilizer market is exports, and the export window for urea is basically set from May to September. After the policy is relaxed, the quota system for exports will be implemented, which is favorable for the urea market. Currently, the operational sentiment of urea production enterprises and market sales links is heating up, with simultaneous promotion of purchase and sales and price increases. Before the export news hit the market, there was a high level of speculation, but after it hit the market, with the premise of ensuring domestic supply and stable prices, the transaction price was mostly negotiable, and there was still room for increase. The relaxation of export policies for small nitrogen fertilizer ammonium chloride, the shortening of legal inspection time, and the relaxation and positive trend of urea export policies can all become gold medals in the ammonium chloride market, supporting the sluggish ammonium chloride market to stabilize or warm up.

Since the end of April, some regions in China have raised their urea prices by about 100 yuan/ton, but ammonium chloride has been operating at a low level. The upstream supply has decreased, but the demand is still lukewarm. The production demand for summer fertilizers is progressing slowly, while urea has a high supply and companies are reluctant to sell. The two markets are completely opposite, and the low price advantage of ammonium chloride is "useless". According to China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Central China is currently around 1840-1880 yuan/ton, while the mainstream delivery price of dry ammonium is around 520-560 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory price of urea in East China is around 1830-1910 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex factory price of dry ammonium is around 480-530 yuan/ton. The price difference is far apart and even has the potential to widen. The trend of the two nitrogen fertilizers in the later stage still depends on the domestic supply and demand performance and further development of policies.

The supply and demand performance of the urea market is strong in the short term. The production cost pressure of urea enterprises is not significant, and it is reported that after the relaxation of export policies, the production enthusiasm of enterprises is relatively high. According to statistics from China Fertilizer Network, the daily production of urea is about 200000 tons, and the supply is sufficient; The liquid ammonia market is weak, with prices fluctuating at low levels and no significant rebound trend in the short term, resulting in weak support for urea in the production focus. From a demand perspective, agriculture purchases according to demand, but the start of summer fertilizers is slow, and there is a strong wait-and-see attitude in the grassroots market; However, in the industrial sector, there is a pressing need to obtain goods for support; Boosted by exports, there is inevitably speculation in the market, and traders have a high purchasing enthusiasm; Furthermore, exports themselves provide some support for the domestic market, but there are still certain variables regarding the specific situation of long-term exports. Therefore, it is not advisable to excessively speculate in order to maintain the progress of exports in the long term.

From this perspective, in the short term, the urea market is dominated by positive factors, and the market sentiment has not decreased. There should be some room for price exploration, but it is also not advisable to excessively speculate in the market. Therefore, ammonium chloride will be supported to some extent, and it also has its own positive factors to be expected.

At present, a few large ammonium chloride factories are undergoing maintenance or load reduction, and some ammonium chloride enterprises also have maintenance plans in the future, which will continuously alleviate supply pressure; On the demand side, there should be a steady increase, with rigid demand expectations for summer fertilizer production in the domestic market, and an increasing trend in export quantity after the relaxation of export policies; Furthermore, the high price of urea has increased the cost pressure of compound fertilizers, and some compound fertilizer companies may inevitably choose ammonium chloride as a substitute for some urea. In addition, the cost pressure on joint alkali enterprises continues to increase, and ammonium chloride is already at a low level. Enterprises have the mentality and foundation to push up or push up prices.

Of course, the negative impact cannot be ignored. The degree of relief from the supply pressure of ammonium chloride is limited, and in the long run, there are still new production capacity of ammonium chloride ready to be put into operation. Overall, the ammonium chloride market is likely to remain weakly stable in the short term. With the easing of supply pressure and support from exports, there may be a slight increase in local low-end prices, but the market lacks momentum.