There have been recent reports of urea exports, as well as rumors of the export of monoammonium and diammonium. In fact, based on the current fertilizer market, urea exports may not be relaxed for the time being, or may follow the quota system like ammonium phosphate in the later stage, but still need to wait. After all, urea is the dominant fertilizer in the fertilizer market, and it can have a ripple effect. Therefore, we will be very cautious. Ammonium phosphate is different. In previous years, enterprises have been relatively obedient, stabilizing prices and ensuring supply domestically, and then exporting according to quotas. After all, it is currently the off-season for ammonium phosphate in China, and the export window period has arrived.

The recent annual meeting of the phosphate compound fertilizer industry did not disclose any news about exports, so is there no hope for the export of diammonium? The answer is no! Many industry insiders believe that exports are likely to be allowed in May, or postponed further. Exports are highly probable, but it depends on when.

The quotation of diammonium enterprises remains stable. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 64% diammonium in Hubei region is 3820-3850 yuan (ton price, the same below), while the first station quotation of 64% diammonium and 57% diammonium in Yungui enterprise in North China is 4000 yuan and 3600 yuan respectively. There is some price looseness in the market. It is reported that the delivery price of 57% diammonium in Shandong region is 3580-3600 yuan, and the outbound price of 64% diammonium in Bayuquan region is around 3870-3880 yuan, indicating that the price has indeed declined compared to the previous period.

However, the recent price reduction is mainly due to weak demand, and the markets in North China, East China, and other regions are afraid that the influx of diammonium from Northeast China will disrupt the market. In fact, the amount that can be returned should be less than in previous years, and it will not have much impact on the markets in North China and other regions. Recently, the market transactions in North China and other regions have been sluggish, and downstream consumers believe that the price of new goods from factories is relatively high, and it is still too early to use fertilizers. Therefore, they are unwilling to purchase in advance, and traders are willing to lower. There is also less demand in the industrial sector. In summer, high nitrogen fertilizer is mainly used, and the amount of diammonium used is relatively small. In the later stage, more fertilizer will be used for wheat in autumn, so it is reasonable to export diammonium at this stage.

There are not many new orders for diammonium enterprises in the near future, but there are still low-priced orders that have not been fulfilled in the early stage. Moreover, the equipment may be converted to other varieties, and some raw materials will be distributed to produce new energy products such as lithium iron phosphate. Therefore, there is generally no inventory pressure. Some diammonium enterprises are currently converting to granular ammonium, some are undergoing equipment maintenance, and some are gathering at the port in advance. It can be seen that enterprises will adjust their industrial structure appropriately.

The raw material market for diammonium phosphate is still acceptable, with sulfur prices stabilizing after a slight decrease this week. The price of granular sulfur at Changjiang Port has dropped to around 2355 yuan, while the prices of Puguang sulfur at Wanzhou Port and Dazhou plant have dropped to 2350 yuan and 2250 yuan respectively, which are basically on par with imported sulfur prices. There is a slight increase in port inventory, and there is a risk of further slight decreases in the future. A significant decline is not expected for the time being. The price of phosphate ore remains strong, and the industry reports that there may be a loosening of around 20 yuan in May, but we still need to pay attention to export news. It can be seen that the support of raw material costs has slightly weakened, but the cost is still relatively high.

In summary, the off-season in the domestic market for diammonium phosphate cannot be changed temporarily, but the support of raw material costs is still strong, and the pressure on enterprises is not significant. Recently, attention has been paid to the trend of sulfur and export news. Some market traders are paying attention to the situation of residual ammonium phosphate in Northeast China, but the impact is not significant. It is expected that diammonium phosphate will continue to loosen in the market, and enterprise quotations should remain stable for a period of time. If it can be exported, the offshore price of diammonium phosphate is relatively considerable based on current international prices.