Today, the traditional peak season of autumn fertilizer market is getting closer and closer, but the actual progress in various regions is not satisfactory. Although the overall market for compound fertilizers has been stable with some fluctuations recently, and mainstream prices have remained relatively stable, there has been no significant increase in downstream stocking interest. According to most compound fertilizer factories, the speed of shipment has only slightly accelerated in August, and the majority of orders are still low-priced in the early stage. The situation of accepting orders after price adjustment is very unsatisfactory. The autumn fertilizer market is constrained by weak demand, but unfortunately there are no outstanding favorable factors supporting the raw material market.

When it comes to the raw material market, the changes in the urea market cannot be avoided. Recently, the urea market has continued to maintain a frequent fluctuation rhythm, with narrow fluctuations in prices in the main production areas. During this period, if downstream demand becomes weak and market purchasing and sales pressure increases, urea factories will use the strategy of lowering prices to attract orders to alleviate the situation. However, when the number of pending orders accumulates to a certain extent, urea factories will seek opportunities for price increases again. Over time, the urea market price has not formed a large drop nor contributed to a sharp rise, and its impact on the compound fertilizer market is gradually weakening.

Firstly, the autumn raw material phosphate fertilizer market seems to be more important. In autumn, the fertilizer demand in the Central Plains region is mainly for high nitrogen and high phosphorus products, with a relatively higher proportion of high phosphorus fertilizer usage. Therefore, how the phosphorus fertilizer market affects the compound fertilizer market is crucial. The market price of ammonium is mainly firm, with high prices of raw materials such as sulfur and phosphate rock, providing favorable cost support. In addition, with the upcoming release of autumn demand, the probability of an improvement in the ammonium market may be greater; The market for competing ammonium fertilizers is mainly stable, with prices consistently maintained at a high level. Downstream acceptance is relatively average, so as long as there are no major unexpected events in the phosphate fertilizer market, the compound fertilizer market will not become very poor.

Secondly, when low-priced goods are fully digested becomes the key. The main reason why compound fertilizer factories have expressed poor shipping performance is that terminal demand is relatively low. The fundamental reason is that low-priced sources have not been digested for a long time in the early stage. Before that, it may not be easy for downstream customers to accept high priced sources. As the season approaches, it has been heard that there has been a slight increase in downstream demand for goods. However, for the end market, the real peak season for purchasing and sales will not officially begin until around September. Therefore, if low-priced goods can be digested in large quantities before the end of the month, then so-called high priced goods may be gradually accepted after entering September.

Finally, how can upstream policies be adjusted to achieve greater effectiveness? In order to stimulate the enthusiasm of distributors to pick up goods, compound fertilizer companies introduced relevant preferential policies for picking up goods as early as July, such as hasty subsidies, freight subsidies, etc. However, the results were mediocre. On the one hand, it was due to the fact that the time for fertilizer use was still far away, and grassroots demand was in a wait-and-see state. On the other hand, the main reason was that downstream fertilizer reserve sentiment was too pessimistic. Regardless of the high or low factory prices or policies, distributors dared not rashly reserve. Unless there were significant signs of improvement in the supply and demand relationship of the raw material market in the future, the situation in August may be the same as that in July.

Overall, changes in the raw material market currently have little impact on the compound fertilizer market. In the future, we need to focus on observing the specific situation of downstream demand release, otherwise it will be difficult to support the autumn fertilizer market solely based on the raw material market.