In mid August, there was still not much change in the autumn compound fertilizer market, and both upstream factories and downstream distributors had no good way to break through the situation. As of now, the ex factory prices of compound fertilizer factories in various regions have remained stable, with only a few narrow fluctuations. According to China Fertilizer Network, the mainstream ex factory prices of 45% chlorine based high nitrogen wheat fertilizer series (such as 25-14-16/25-13-7) are around 2450-2650 yuan/ton, with low-end prices mainly coming from small and medium-sized factories and relatively large price differences with large factories.

Compared to compound fertilizers, the urea market is slightly stronger. Although urea prices fluctuate, once the price drops to a lower level, downstream demand follows suit. For example, after local factory prices dropped to 1700 yuan/ton recently, the acquisition effect was relatively ideal. Prices above 1700 yuan/ton seem to have no effect on attracting orders. Downstream consumers already have their own psychological expectations for urea prices, so what is the ideal price for purchasing compound fertilizers? Or is it not due to price reasons that the autumn market is deadlocked?

Firstly, the price of compound fertilizers will not fluctuate frequently like urea. The price of compound fertilizer mainly depends on the cost of raw materials. Recently, the raw material market seems to fluctuate, but in reality, the changes in the cost of compound fertilizer are very limited. The overall market for ammonium chloride remains stable with slight fluctuations, with only a few areas experiencing slight price increases; The ammonium market continues to remain strong, supported by raw material costs and autumn demand, and the possibility of further weakening is very small; The new price of potassium chloride from domestic manufacturers has not been officially announced yet, and the reluctance of sellers to sell due to tight port cargo is not reduced. Downstream suppliers are also resisting high prices. Therefore, the fluctuation range of raw material prices at the current stage cannot have a significant impact on the cost of compound fertilizers.

Secondly, the autumn market confidence has not been fully established due to the raw material market conditions. Since the beginning of the autumn market, the raw material market has not been too calm, and the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers have remained very firm. However, there is no confidence in the market performance in Hefei. Downstream distributors are generally cautious in stocking up, mainly due to concerns about the future market trend, especially the price fluctuations during the peak buying and selling season. In addition, grassroots demand has not yet officially started, and even if distributors establish inventory, it is difficult to immediately generate sales, which only increases operational risks. Therefore, the raw material market is hot and the compound fertilizer market is unlikely to heat up significantly.

Finally, there may be more problems facing factories today than imagined. So far, the vast majority of compound fertilizer factories are still executing the pending orders for the early autumn pre collection activity, also known as "low price orders". After the price rises to a high level, there has been no significant transaction, and even the execution of "low price orders" has been hindered one after another. If the downstream delivery speed cannot be accelerated, the factory delivery process after September will be put to the test; In addition, high prices cannot be sold, and low prices cannot be sold either. After all, the current cost of raw materials can be said to be high. If compound fertilizer factories want to continue acquiring orders, they may have to wait until downstream low-priced inventory is fully digested before they can proceed.

Overall, what the compound fertilizer market lacks is not the support of raw material costs, but the effective resolution of supply-demand contradictions.