Recently, the price of urea in the market has continued to decline. After falling below the key price of 1700 yuan/ton, downstream customers' purchasing interest has weakened again, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the market has not improved significantly. The decline in urea prices is mainly affected by the dual factors of oversupply and weak demand. On the one hand, the domestic urea production capacity continues to expand, and the market supply continues to increase. Currently, the physical daily production of urea is about 185000 tons. The maintenance of some factories has reduced the daily production compared to the previous period, but it cannot alleviate the current supply and demand pressure; On the other hand, agricultural demand has entered the off-season, and industrial demand has not been able to keep up in a timely manner, resulting in overall insufficient demand. Due to the average sales of compound fertilizers, the expected centralized procurement has been delayed.

As a nitrogen fertilizer, ammonium sulfate, as an alternative product to urea, often has a price trend closely related to the urea market. The recent drop in urea prices has undoubtedly brought considerable pressure to the ammonium sulfate market. In addition, the market demand for ammonium sulfate is also facing a weak situation, with urea and nitrogen fertilizer customers generally not considering purchasing ammonium sulfate, and agricultural demand is not strong. However, industrial demand has not shown a significant increase recently, and some corn processing enterprises have also slowed down their procurement of ammonium sulfate. However, the export of ammonium sulfate, which is mainly dependent on it, is also facing significant pressure. The Brazilian market, which has a high usage of ammonium sulfate, is still saturated and has not shown any improvement. International customers are inquiring about orders and offering significantly lower prices in the market, and there is still a continuous downward trend. Currently, exports are relatively pessimistic, and the price of ammonium sulfate in the market will remain weak and volatile in the short term, with little chance of a significant rebound.

The current market price of ammonium sulfate is at a low level, with prices in major production areas falling below 1000 yuan/ton. The price of caprolactam grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong can only barely maintain at 990 yuan/ton. Most export traders and pellet factories still have some high priced inventory, but due to the lack of improvement in international demand, they can only allow market prices to fall. Although the inventory pressure at some ports has slightly eased, the purchasing sentiment has not improved significantly due to the severe international demand and the repeated decline in international transaction prices.

The sluggish situation in the ammonium sulfate market is expected to continue for some time. On the one hand, domestic overcapacity will further exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance in the market. On the other hand, the sluggish demand in the international market will continue to put pressure on the price of ammonium sulfate. The seasonal rebound in agricultural demand and the gradual recovery of industrial demand may also bring new opportunities for the ammonium sulfate market, however, these favorable supports are unlikely to manifest in the short term.

Overall, both the urea and ammonium sulfate markets are facing the dilemma of supply-demand imbalance and price decline. The price trend of ammonium sulfate is closely related to international demand, and currently there are mostly negative news. In the absence of significant improvement internationally, the price of ammonium sulfate is likely to continue to decline. This year, Chinese traders have shown a slight disadvantage in terms of initiative, with more transactions of floating goods at sea. It is understood that floating goods are still difficult to transact after price reductions recently, and international customers have a poor willingness to pay. In the future, we need to continue to closely monitor the demand situation in the international market and the progress of inventory digestion in Brazil.