In 2015, raw material prices steadily rising, will form a powerful support for the compound fertilizer cost. But the oversupply contradictions still exist, the export situation is not optimistic, export to have great influence on the relationship between supply and demand. In 2015, the compound fertilizer market is expected to remain dominated by smooth, will become the new fertilizer compound fertilizer market highlights.

Raw material price stability -- bullish urea, monoammonium phosphate, potash fertilizer is the main raw material for production of compound fertilizer. Nitrogen fertilizer, phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer varieties prices basically stable, partial variety price rising trend. By the impact of raw materials, it is expected that in 2015 the compound fertilizer price should be a steady upward trend, rising to 50 ~ 100 yuan (ton price, the same below).

Urea export season 2015 to cancel the window period, to a certain extent, to stabilize the market, is expected to price fluctuations will continue to narrow. Gas head of urea will appear large-scale exit, help to alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of industry. If the country is to levy value-added tax, although can support urea costs, is not conducive to the export. According to estimates, value-added tax levy, urea costs will increase 40 ~ 50 yuan, plus 80 yuan tariff on urea, export tax will reach 120 ~ 130 yuan. Therefore, part of the industry that this year's export situation is not optimistic. Overall, the urea market after a narrow range of fluctuation in 2014, trend this year will be very difficult to sharp fluctuations, smooth will become the main tone.

At present, the order of monoammonium phosphate can mostly be maintained until mid February, after the price hike of new single transactions in general. With the spring, autumn sowing fertilizer for the arrival of the peak season, the existence of rigid demand inevitable, will also promote the ammonium phosphate market. Upstream raw materials of phosphorus ore, sulfur, ammonia prices will not change radically, supporting the existence of price of monoammonium phosphate. Expected monoammonium phosphate Market is still mainly stable, wave amplitude is not too large.

Chinese market demand began to pick up, is expected to promote the potash fertilizer prices. Saline Lake is popular not only highlights the strategic shift of potash fertilizer, the integration of sales advantages, indicates the potash fertilizer demand has rebounded to above 10000000 ton per year. Thanks to the sharp fall in Russia's foreign exchange rate, the economy downward pressure increase, potash export is bound to become the Russian rescue force for the first half of 2015, the big contract negotiation, implementation of the rising price of international suppliers to start a strong desire. If the contract prices to meet rising expectations, the domestic potash market is expected to continue to rebound. If the market heating up the market of potassium chloride, potassium sulfate will also keep the heat.

-- market reforms represent the general trend along with our country economy level gradually improve, natural gas, electric power, transportation and other fertilizer can enjoy preferential fields, are speeding up the marketization process. Especially the convening of the eighteen session of the third plenary session, to determine the direction of market reform, all walks of life to the market for comprehensive regulation. Facing the new situation, in 2015 the relevant enterprises to re position compound fertilizer product attributes, gradually reduce the dependence on the state's preferential policies, and speed up the reform of marketization process industries.

-- the export situation is not optimistic because of the common compound fertilizer overcapacity is a foregone conclusion, the impact of the international market on the domestic market share will increase. The domestic products can not be with Canada, Russia and other foreign compound fertilizer compound fertilizer are comparable, the export situation is not optimistic. If the 2015 global productivity decline, oil prices rose significantly, the international market of compound fertilizer prices will rise, and then affects the domestic price. If the international market stable, the domestic market price changes, the possibility is very small.

-- new fertilizer ushered in the spring as the basic fertilizer overcapacity exacerbated, industry competition to enter the white hot, and food safety issues have caused more and more attention of the society, new fertilizer welcome the development of spring, showing a All flowers bloom together. situation. To solve the problem of excess production capacity of compound fertilizer, to the development of new varieties, combined with soil testing work, to the water soluble fertilizer, slow-release fertilizer, organic fertilizer, biological fertilizer, slow-release fertilizer, special fertilizer development. The new type of fertilizer can meet the traditional compound fertilizer market demand, retains the basic characteristics of high nutrient content of ammonium nitrate, which can be used for a variety of economic crops, oil crops, dry land crop base fertilizer and top dressing, but also has high using efficiency, beneficial to environmental protection, is a significant effect of increasing yield, good economic benefit and social benefit fertilizer. In 2015 the people of economic crop demand will further increase, driven by demand of new type of fertilizer market. In the traditional field of oversupply situation, new compound fertilizer in 2015 will show a more exuberant vitality.

Spring fertilizer consumption accounted for 40% of the amount of fertilizer. Although our country cultivated area in decline, small area farmers abandoned, but domestic spring is still rigid requirements. So the dealer does not have too big change in reserves, are waiting for the arrival of spring in large scale fertilizer. By the autumn of compound fertilizer production and sales market, will present "Duanpingkuai" trend, enterprises will be more competitive advantage. (Zhou Yixin)