Cool earth day, leaves are yellow, fertilizer prices overhaul stalls, turn depending on the downstream distributors.
Demand is weak, is not busy season, under raw bearish, agricultural also anxious.
November holiday fertilizer companies will have entered the parking maintenance phase, if their holiday is just beginning, in fact, there are many companies as of the end of September wheat closed fertilizer production line, general-purpose fertilizer is only produced on demand, currently around wheat fertilizer market fundamentals quite finished, most of the enterprises and other regions of the two rivers have even stopped offer. View downstream market, and many other factors, the fertilizer dealers or difficult to calm.
Even when over the course of time, I must mention the impact of the VAT is still re-sign for fertilizer companies continues. That time many dealers fear Sept. fertilizer prices and therefore a large number of prepared fertilizer before the end of August, the number swore not to mention, more than before, although adjusted purchase price, but it was also the wheat fertilizer mainstream price remained at the beginning of July 2100 given High on the yuan / ton.
Therefore, considering the profits, when the dealers started to develop in the downstream sales market had a higher price, but also for the needs of the grassroots soon have no choice but small purchases, but there has emerged a more awkward situation in which fertilizer raw materials market predicament abound.
The price of urea fertilizer in terms of the way down after the peak in July, to date Shandong mainstream ex-factory price has dropped to about 1400-1430 yuan / ton, and traded even as low as about 1370 yuan / ton, ammonium chloride prices in tandem The lower; monoammonium phosphate aspect at present, although offer temporary stability, but turnover is very limited, partial downward trend has now; before the port can be sold due to the limited supply of potash, KCl domestic production levels are still high, limited market supply, price temporarily remain high, but the recent international potash prices lower next year is expected to reduce the price of potash big contract, but under the circumstances the supply of flat demand gradually increased, long-term market or reproduction of potassium chloride pre slow downward trend, potassium sulfate market demand dull, factory inventories rising, there is little fear of the price drop. Apparently raw materials market is almost no positive factors, although downstream sales market is not much reference material, but at least often in urea price as a reference, according to the previous situation, when the difference between the two is higher than 200 yuan / ton, the terminal is often difficult to accept it not actively getting goods, and the current price difference between the two over the average of up to 400 yuan / ton, in Shandong province, for example, the wholesale price of urea mainstream in 1600 yuan / ton, 45% chlorine-based general-purpose fertilizer wholesale price of 2100 yuan mainstream / ton, so the primary dealers said that they will not be a lot of stocking, late or temporary demand procurement, so I'm afraid there will be significant delays start winter storage.
Speaking of "temporary demand", said analysis focuses on the grassroots began to purchase time or will be delayed, the next focus is the procurement needs, namely purchases. We can say that winter storage market is facing a big problem difficult to ignore - weakness of the grain market. With rice and corn this year gradually harvest market, the acquisition of autumn began, more than 70% annual autumn grain production, the acquisition of autumn is the highlight of the whole year's grain purchase, and this year in some areas affected by adverse weather and other factors, wheat yield and product quality has declined, northern corn price fell sharply, overall very unsatisfactory price in autumn this year, in addition to tea, cotton and other cash crops in areas dominated market also depressed the South this fall, farmers lose Business confidence in the future of tea plantations with a total area or will fall. In this case, their purchasing power and enthusiasm dealt a heavy blow, dealers can only wait for the market to recover in the sidelines, most primary dealers represent in order to prevent post-faced pressure on the stock, do not consider a lot of stocking.
Among the so-called Operations Research or defeat, it can only winning in thousands of miles away, but for fertilizer dealers this fall apparently failed to become "autumn", then the confidence of long-term Dongchu market would necessarily be affected. The trend of late need a lot of attention to food raw materials market and the dual constraints of the market, temporarily keeping cautious view is still necessary.