Although the sales of diammonium in North China is not over yet, even said that the local sales have not yet entered the season, but recently the northeast part of the plant has been tentatively advance policy, the individual factory with interest or buy the corresponding policy, some dealers for this in advance of the Northeast market, attention compared to the same period last year has increased significantly, and the the fertilizer plant also introduced winter storage policies, everything seems to imply that this year's winter storage market will diammonium somewhat earlier than in previous years, but the advance into the winter storage really conducive to boost the price of diammonium? In my view, it is not true, integrated diammonium bean manufacturers point out that the advance of diammonium into the winter storage is good and bad as follows:
Good one: winter storage ahead of the market, good support for the fall of the North China market
Although most companies now limit part of the production capacity, the enterprise cash can be sold is relatively small, but the individual plant equipment operating rate or later will suddenly increase, such as the present stage of winter storage into the reserve stage ahead of time, some of the goods diverted to the northeast and northwest market, so the sales pressure in autumn two ammonium will be greatly reduced, at the same time, according to common sense reckoning, so state into the season after the overall price of DAP possibility must continue upward.
Positive two: ahead of winter storage, winter storage area price or will rise
In the winter season in North China after the reservoir started in autumn fertilizer sales ended, experienced dealers dumped goods stage, winter storage of diammonium pricing in a relatively low level, and the enterprise by the North China market in sales stage of receivables, inventory pressure can not only ensure the late free. Can also ensure that the Northeast and northwest market station price stability (now Liaoning Panjin area recently learned 64% low-end diammonium buyout price in 2500 yuan / ton slightly higher, while the lowest in winter last year, only 2200 yuan / ton slightly lower, the overall price reached 300 yuan / ton.
But at this stage, the relatively small number of traders, mainly following the negative factors:
Bad one: to the real fertilizer stage is too early, too many variables
At this stage of the North China market has not yet entered the real base fertilizer demand, real demand of Northeast China and Northwest China market is relatively far away, taking Heilongjiang area as an example, the time to take the goods should be the first after the Spring Festival, according to the winter storage policy is now large enterprises issued payment calculation, dealers pay interest it should be around 150 yuan / ton, in March next year will be 64% DAP ex warehouse at 2850 yuan / ton can not guarantee losses, dealers more pessimistic expectations of the fear of late March next year to enter the sales season when the price level should be beyond the reach of diammonium.
Bad two: the use of autumn sales bet winter storage slightly higher risk
Recently I learned from the market, the Shandong area for individual factories to seize the market price from 57% to 2150 DAP low-end forced yuan / ton, while the price of pre market basically stable at 2200 yuan / ton station, after the price, agents said sales blocked, because the latter does not exclude the possibility of lower prices lead to overstock deposit so, what is true, then for winter storage pricing will have a certain effect of diammonium.
In conclusion, although individual enterprises at the present stage of winter storage tentative policies, but because of the situation in North China is unclear, the northeast and northwest dealers not to purchase, from the company was informed that the "6+2" at the end of this month, the meeting will be held in Bayuquan, when the winter storage policy will be further clear.