Introduction

In the first half of 2018, the domestic urea market runs high, although there is a rise and fall, but the overall development is obviously better than the previous years, from the gold LIAN urea price index, the lowest in the first half of 2018 was 1850, the highest reached 1960, the price difference was only 110 points.


In the first half of 2018, the domestic urea market runs high, although there is a rise and fall, but the overall development is obviously better than the previous years. From the gold LIAN urea price index, the lowest in the first half of 2018 was 1850, the highest reached 1960, the price difference was only 110 points, not too big, and the domestic urea industry was in the surplus in the first half of the year. It can be said that the development of domestic urea market in the first half of 2018 is more "healthy" than in previous years. So how will the urea industry develop in the second half?

Start to maintain a reasonable range of concussion

In 2018, the average domestic urea market began to start at 57.27%, basically between 50%-60%, and it had to be said that the operating range was relatively reasonable. At low opening hours, the price continued to rise to 150 yuan / ton, while the price continued to fall, or even less than 100 yuan / ton at the start of the high. In the second half of 2018, according to statistics, no enterprise was withdrawn or large equipment was put into production. Therefore, the production capacity would maintain a relatively stable state, and the off-season will face equipment maintenance and reduction. However, in the view of the current apparent consumption of the Chinese market, the production of compound fertilizer enterprises, melamine, and wood-based panel industry The daily production of the urea industry also needs to be 7-8 million tons in the same day. In addition to tens of thousands of tons of social inventory, the daily output of 12-13 tons per day is completely acceptable. Therefore, it is expected that the urea industry will begin to fluctuate in the 53%-55% interval in the second half of 2018, and the highest in the period of high construction is about 60%. It is believed that the start of the second half of 2018 will be more reasonable.

Both import and export are worthy of attention

Because of the decline in China's export status in 2018, China's export volume decreased sharply in the first half of the year, only 563 thousand tons in 1-5 months, 73.78% more than last year, and the import volume reached 88 thousand tons. At the same time, there was a large number of imports to Hong Kong in 6-7 months. It is expected to import more than 200 thousand tons. This is a situation that has never occurred in the past year. . How will the import and export of urea come into China in the second half?

There are still some opportunities for export. At present, China's large particle offshore prices can be accepted in the entire international market, and the United States sanctions Iran, Iran's domestic urea production will not only be affected, exports are not smooth, if Iran's source is difficult to export, then as a major urea producer in China, It will benefit, especially in places like India, Brazil and other places. At the same time, the depreciation of the RMB is serious and the intermediate price of the exchange rate falls from about 6.3 to about 6.6, which is good for China's export, so it is believed that the future export of China is still certain when the conditions are satisfied.  Operating opportunities. After all, there will be some operations in the second half of the year. After all, China's domestic prices are higher than international prices, and the offshore prices in other parts of the world are low. If the later international prices fall back to the early lows and the domestic prices remain high, then there is a large import quota in the second half of the year. The chemical fertilizer company will still import it. Therefore, in the second half of the year, for the urea industry, import and export need to be concerned.

Strict domestic environmental protection materials will still affect the market

The environmental situation in the past year is often more stringent in the second half of the year than in the first half of the year. In 2018, it will not be an exception, especially after the northern heating season. First, the price of raw materials will rise. Secondly, if the gas is used for civilian use, the gas head enterprise will stop working, then the work will fall sharply again, again last year. It is possible that the market will continue to rise for half a year. However, the impact of environmental protection on urea is often the competition between supply and demand, one is that industrial demand will be reduced, and the two is the decline in the trade union of urea. It is mainly concerned with which the supply reduction and demand decrease which occupy the main position. If the start of the slump, the supply reduction is far more than the demand for reduction, then the market will maintain the upward trend. Situation, on the other hand, will be sluggish.

The market will continue to remain high

In the second half of 2018, the domestic urea industry will still be in a reasonable development state in the second half of 2018, and the price will remain high. In the third quarter, because of the lack of agricultural demand in the domestic market, the impact of the market will be based on industrial demand. In the 7 and August, the purchase of the lower reaches of Hefei will not be too concentrated. And the current price compound fertilizer industry all think higher, so it is expected that in August, the domestic urea market will be the lowest point, in the Shandong market, the price or fall to 1850 yuan / ton; the fourth quarter, the winter heating in the north, one will limit gas to civil, two is strict environmental protection, the urea industry will start to decline At that time, the supply will be reduced and there will be a small amount of winter storage to start. Then there will be an upward trend in the market. It is estimated that in the 4 quarter, the market price in Shandong will reach 2000 yuan / ton. On the whole, the domestic urea market will remain at a high level in the second half of 2018.