The urea market during the National Day holiday was not quiet at all. On the evening of October 5, India MMTC announced its tender for urea. Fifteen suppliers, with a total volume of about 1.75 million tons, offered a minimum bid price of $352.88 per ton on the west coast of India and $356 per ton on the east coast of India, compared with India MMTC's 8. The price of 712,000 tons of urea, 274.80 U.S. dollars per ton (C.I.F. West Coast of India) and 278.95 U.S. dollars per ton (C.I.F.) rose by 77 to 78 U.S. dollars per ton on Jan. 1, which should have been the rarest price increase in history to have seen in just two months.

Of course, a supplementary document issued by India on the evening of the 4th pointed out that Iran did not accept direct bids from urea manufacturers or suppliers of Iranian goods, which is one of the reasons for the increase.

Considering the sea freight and the profit of the middlemen, the lowest tender price in the latest tender is US$335-338 per ton, the exchange rate is 6.87, the average port miscellaneous is 60 yuan/ton, and the value added tax is 11%. It is about US$2194-2214 per ton for the urea manufacturer to send to the main port of our country. As for the ex-factory price of the specific manufacturer, see Freight charges to the port.

Take Shandong as an example, the port freight is about 100 yuan / ton. Wow, the export price of Shandong urea factory is 2114 yuan / ton.

This explains why a urea manufacturer in Shandong Province raised its ex-factory quotation by 60 yuan / ton to 2130 yuan / ton at noon on October 6, and the ex-factory quotation of another large urea manufacturer in Shandong Province rose by 20 yuan / ton on the morning of the 7th. Next, local urea manufacturers and other local urea manufacturers will follow suitably, such as October 6-7 Anhui manufacturers have increased 50-60 yuan / ton, Hebei manufacturers have suspended quotations, suspended receipts, research new prices, Guangzhou secondary wholesale prices rose 70 yuan / ton to about 2350 yuan / ton.

Urea to start a new round of soaring, how much can not go too far?

Considering that the export list is more than 10,000 tons, conventionally speaking, the ex-factory price converted from the export side is lower than the domestic urea manufacturer's price of 50 yuan / ton or more. Wow, the factory price of urea in Shandong is 2160 yuan / ton. No problem. 2200 yuan / ton seems to be just around the corner.

So for the time being, the domestic demand industry is relatively stable, and the weak agricultural fertilizer reserves have been scared, dare not rush to take until March next year, dare not take more, the real increase and speculation under the urea factory to 2200 yuan / ton is more reliable, and then continue to see more, we will see the talks in Ethiopia 500,000 tons of urea tender, the end of October 8 Bangladesh bid for 200,000 tonnes of granular urea and Pakistan bid for 100,000 tonnes of urea, which ended on October 15, to see how much higher the final price of these tenders will be than India's winning bid. Of course, India has a small probability of abolishing the bid.

Given that India's shipping date is before November 19 and the time is very near, and that India's next shortfall is 1.2-2 million tonnes, and that China, as an exporting country, has been absent from the international market for at least 20 million tonnes of urea since 2016, India seems likely to have risen to more than $330 per tonne FOB urea in the Middle East on the eve of India's bidding. A portion of the urea cargo will be tendered at a counter-offer price of US$352.88 per ton CIF West Coast Port of India, which the East Coast may refer to.

Anyway, the domestic demand is also those, China's urea industry has not yet reached a low start rate period, before the gas shortage, gas price coal price rise may be the end of October, now just pay attention to the international market; China's urea manufacturers are likely to rise first, then say, factory rose to 2200 yuan / ton, or even 2300 yuan / ton, finished. Unexpectedly before the end of 2018 there is still a lot of good, even if there is a shock in the middle of the urea plant for us, after all, the current price is far higher than the cost.

Again, reiterate the previous view of the China Fertilizer Network Car: proposed for industrial demand traders to take a little more, sell by late October, or sell by mid-November, proposed for agricultural demand dealers to continue to be cautious small pickup, a large position in urea to February-March next year, during which the export side, Variables may exist in terms of domestic policy, whether fertilizer production in autumn and winter can be consistent, whether large agricultural capital companies that have not received low-cost urea will continue to withdraw goods or respond to the state's policy of short-term storage instead of goods.