The urea that always likes to "do things" has been tossing about for a long time, and finally "rises", which is only a partial phenomenon for the time being. In the background of basically no topic to speculate, it is not easy to raise prices; but for the "old drivers" in the urea industry, the increase of 10-20 yuan/ton can not cause a big disturbance. Recently, urea prices in Shandong and surrounding areas have increased by 10-20 yuan/ton. The reason is that some enterprises have temporary conversion of urea plants to liquid ammonia, enterprises have sufficient low-price subscription orders, and prices have been pricked. Stimulate shipment, but this does not change the downstream distributor on-demand mode of operation.

In addition to Shandong and Hebei, the urea manufacturers in other areas have not followed suit rationally, and their prices are mostly stable or even declining. For example, the urea prices in Hubei market have declined to a certain extent. The ex-factory price of industrial urea is only 1900 yuan/ton, and the main ex-factory price of local urea in southwest China has also declined from 30-50 yuan/ton to 1850-1910 yuan/ton. It is enough to see that the urea market is not as optimistic as imagined. Traders are still on the market, and clearly understand that changes in supply and demand dominate the trend of urea market.

_Urea enterprises start construction at a high level, and supply of goods is on the high side. Some urea enterprises that have stopped production for a long time will not go into further elaboration. Except for the overhaul of individual large urea plants in Shandong, Northeast and Anhui, other factories generally maintain a relatively high start-up rate. According to the statistics of China Chemical Fertilizer Network, the overall industry start-up rate of urea enterprises is 63.6%, and the total daily output is about 1596,000 tons. So far, most urea enterprises have not clearly indicated that there is a next overhaul plan. As a result, the overall start-up will remain high. In addition, under the double checks of environmental protection and safety, some small and medium-sized chemical enterprises using ammonia have limited or stopped production, while the liquid ammonia enterprises have started construction sufficiently, resulting in excess supply of goods, weakening of liquid ammonia market, and continuing decline in local prices. It is not excluded that some enterprises reduce ammonia release, and the production focus is slightly tilted towards urea. What we have to guard against is that the high trade union will again pull down urea sales. Price.

_. Demand is intermittent and not centralized enough, and the mentality of waiting and seeing is obvious. Agricultural demand is weak, but in some areas, the time for fertilizer application is delayed repeatedly due to drought or rainy weather, and terminal purchasing is on demand; the way of fertilizer preparation for large agricultural distributors is unchanged at first, that is, to avoid some risk of early reserve, on demand, and according to feedback from some distributors, inventory remains to be digested. Industrial compound fertilizer enterprises operate at a low start-up rate, and their production enthusiasm is not high. There are many enterprises on the local market that stop in succession, and the purchase of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium raw fertilizers is reduced.

Good news on the international market came quietly. First, according to the news, India may issue a new tender on June 26. Shipping date may be in early August. While urea enterprises in China are looking forward to a further turnaround in the market, they also have good prospects. Once they can continue to export, it will ease the pressure of shipment in the domestic market and support the strength of domestic urea prices. Second, the small rise in international urea prices will stimulate the sensitive nerves of domestic urea enterprises. In many negative factors, we can see the benefits.

_Finally, from a comprehensive point of view, whether before the general rise or the joint speculation of the manufacturers, the price increase is undoubtedly a good thing, to a certain extent stimulated the downstream delivery and payment, increased the urea enterprise's order receipt; but from the obvious contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic urea market and the consistent operation style of large agricultural investors, this round of urea price increase is still likely to have a small thunderstorm. A little fuss can't set off a big storm.