By the end of October, the total daily output of urea had been around 140000 tons. Half a month later, the daily output of urea had been suddenly reduced to 129000 tons and then recovered. By November 15, it was 135000 tons. The situation of limited production of the two gas head urea enterprises in Inner Mongolia was finally implemented, that is, the production was stopped from November 16-18. The planned situation of the southwest gas head manufacturers about to limit production is still to be observed.

It is possible that the daily output of   urea will continue to decrease, even as low as 120000 tons or less in the same period of last year. Some people in the urea market are eager to copy the bottom and prepare fertilizer. So what's the effect of this reduction? How much can we continue to reduce production? Can it lead to an increase of 50 or 100?

in the middle of November this year, the daily output of 130000 tons is indeed similar to the low level of the same period of 2017-2018. In the second half of this year, the urea market has not been favorable for a long time, considering that the price of natural gas is going to rise in winter, considering that the production rate of urea will continue to decrease in the future, and considering that the price of urea for the production of winter storage fertilizer by the compound fertilizer enterprises in the late November and later may increase, some dealers have It's normal for us to take delivery of the goods. Some urea manufacturers began to raise prices slightly since the beginning of November and continue to tentatively raise prices, but we still need to study carefully.

 At present, the stable or even small increase situation is caused by the continuous low price signing in front of us, the recent federal reserve and minimum guarantee policies, especially the temporary maintenance of some large urea plants with representative low prices. Next, the key is the continuous shutdown of gas urea enterprises and the timely implementation of Shanxi coal urea's winter production limit plan. Only when they stop, can the downstream industrial customers have the sense of urgency to get the goods. Only when they stop, can the urea increase 50 yuan or even 100 yuan.

 In December, at the critical moment of repayment of bank loans, some urea manufacturers began to issue preferential policies to realize urea products as soon as possible. Dealers who know this situation will not have the sense of urgency to take delivery of the products. After the reduction of production, the price increase will be at most a small increase. It should be difficult to increase 50 yuan.

3: Although there are many urea manufacturers whose prices have fallen below costs. In addition to the above-mentioned production reduction, the situation that some urea manufacturers are expected to stop production due to falling costs will not appear at least this year. As for the possible shutdown next year, it remains to be observed. If the conventional urea enterprises of gas head and Shanxi coal head stop production in winter, the urea will increase 50-100 yuan at most.

Factor 4: the export situation is particularly poor. I still remember a long time ago when China exported 15-16 million tons of urea, or at least 10 million tons of urea, there were many opportunities for the domestic urea factory price to rise and fluctuate greatly. This year's dream will not need to be realized. There is no lack of the participation of China's urea in the world. The latest bidding ship date of India from December 30 to December 19 is a good explanation (transportation of urea in China The export time to the port is correspondingly shortened, which greatly reduces the interest in winning the bid of urea in China). In recent years, a lot of new international urea production capacity has been released, such as three urea plants in the United States, one in Nigeria, and three or two urea plants in Egypt all provide a lot of urea supply.

In short, it's easy to achieve small price increases and small fluctuations. If we want to increase by 50, we will try our best to achieve it! After all, price stability is enough. But if you want to go up 100, we won't make an appointment! At least not before the beginning of February next year.